3.2Supply Route Disruptions

3.2.1 Ukraine disruption

This assessment considers the disruption of all gas imports via Ukraine to Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland during climatic stress situations while maintaining the exports from the EU to Ukraine.

This case considers the disruption of the transit through Ukraine and the risk group is formed by Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, ­Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, ­Poland, ­Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia. See ­Figure 3.37.

Figure 3.37: Risk group for Ukraine transit disruption.

3.2.1.1 Peak Day

Existing Infrastructure level

The Existing infrastructure is generally resilient to a disruption of gas supply from Ukraine in climatic stress situations. Results are very similar compared to climatic stress assessment without transit ­disruption assessment; nevertheless, the remaining flexibility decreases not only in southern eastern Europe, but also in most of the western countries. Such improvement compared with TYNDP2018 is driven by the commissioning of Turkstream, which flows gas to Bulgaria, providing Southern Eastern Europe with more flexibility, as well as by the ­commissioning of Nordstream 2 with enhanced downstream infrastructure, enabling  further ­redirection of flow from West to East via Czech ­Republic. In this regard, Romania, and Poland to a lesser extent, are ­exposed to additional demand curtailment ­under the Ukraine route disruption. Figure 3.40 shows Existing ­infrastructure results.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal scenarios ­results show an additional risk of demand ­curtailment in Romania (ca. 11 %) due to ­infrastructure limitation from Hungary and Bulgaria towards Romania and from Slovakia and Austria ­towards Hungary. ­

Figure 3.38: Infrastructure limitations towards ­Romania under Ukraine disruption, Existing ­infrastructure, 2025.

2030-2040
National Trends

Romania is exposed to a significant level of demand curtailment in 2030 (ca. 22 %) and it worsens in 2040 (ca. 38 %) due to infrastructure limitations with Bulgaria and Hungary in a context of sharp ­decline of the indigenous natural gas production not being compensated by any new renewable gas ­production. See Figure 3.39.

Poland is exposed to a higher risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 compared to the climatic stress conditions (without transit disruption) ­assessment from 15 % to 23 %.

Figure 3.39: Peak demand and production in Romania in National Trends scenario in GWh/d.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Romania is not exposed to demand curtailment thanks to lower demand combined with higher ­indigenous production coming from renewables ­(biomethane and power to gas) alleviating the ­congestions in the interconnections with Hungary and Bulgaria. See Figure 3.40.

Due to the transition away from coal in power ­generation and heating generation and the ­consequent of a significant increase of its peak ­demand, and ­despite the development of ­conventional and ­renewable gases generation, ­Poland faces an additional risk of demand ­curtailment under a Ukraine route disruption due to infrastructure limitations with all its neighbouring countries. Throughout 2030 to 2040, the risk of ­demand curtailment increases from ca. 32 % in 2030 to ca. 40 % in 2040 for both scenarios.

Figure 3.40: Peak production in Romania in COP 21 scenarios (Distributed Energy and Global Ambition respectively) in GWh/d.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.41: Existing infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under peak day situation.

Low Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that FID projects help improving the situation for those countries affected by the Ukraine transit disruption. Figure 3.42 shows the Low infrastructure level results.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The European gas system is resilient to a peak day situation in case of Ukraine transit disruption.

In the Balkan region, FID projects fully mitigate the risk of demand curtailment for Romania.

2030
National Trends

FID projects bring infrastructure reinforcement in Romania and reduce the risk of demand ­curtailment in 2030 from 22 % in Existing infrastructure level to 7 % in Low infrastructure level.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

FID projects partially mitigate the exposure of ­demand curtailment in Poland from 32 % (Existing infrastructure level) to 15 %.

2040
National Trends

FID projects bring infrastructure reinforcement in Romania and reduce the risk of demand ­curtailment from 38 % Existing infrastructure level to 28 %.

Thanks to the commissioning of FID projects, ­allowing neighbouring countries to cooperate, ­Poland fully mitigates its exposure to demand ­curtailment.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

In Poland FID projects partially mitigate the ­exposure of demand curtailment from 40 % ­(Existing ­infrastructure level) to 25 %.

In Romania, in Global Ambition scenario, FID ­projects bring additional flexibility and fully mitigate the exposure to demand curtailment.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.42: Low infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under peak day situation.

Advanced Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that the European gas system is resilient thanks to the commissioning of ­Advanced-status projects. Figure 3.43 shows the results for Advanced infrastructure level.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The European gas system is resilient to a Peak day situation in case of Ukraine transit disruption. The commissioning of advanced status projects increases the ­remaining flexibility all around Europe above 15 %.

2030-2040
National Trends

Simulation results show that advanced-status ­projects improve the situation in Romania fully ­mitigating its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and 2040 and increasing the remaining flexibility in the country.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Advanced projects fully mitigate the risk of demand curtailment in Poland in both scenarios and years by allowing neighbouring countries to further cooperate. Advanced-status projects help increasing the remaining flexibility in Western European countries in Global Ambition 2030.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.43: Advanced infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under peak day situation.

PCI Infrastructure level

This infrastructure level assesses the different scenarios under peak day demand and Ukraine transit ­disruption against the current European gas system infrastructure complemented with FID projects (Low infrastructure level) and all projects included in the latest 4th PCI list. The results show the benefits ­stemming from the implementation of the latest PCI list. Figure 3.44 shows the results for this ­infrastructure level.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The European gas system, including FID projects is resilient to a peak day situation in case of Ukraine transit ­disruption. The commissioning of additional ­projects ­included in the 4th PCI list improve the ­remaining flexibility, especially in South-Eastern ­Europe.

2030-2040
National Trends

The projects included in the 4th PCI list help ­Romania to fully mitigate its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2030 and to reduce the risk of ­demand curtailment in 2040 from 28 % in Low infrastructure level to 7 % in PCI infrastructure level.

Thanks to the commissioning of projects included in the 4th PCI list, Poland increases its remaining flexibility above 15 %.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition1

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and decreases its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 for both scenarios thanks to the ­commissioning of projects included in the 4th PCI list, ­allowing neighbouring countries to ­cooperate. Western European countries increase their ­remaining flexibility in Global Ambition 2030.

1 Differing from the climatic stress conditions assessment without transit disruption (section 3.1 of this Assessment Report) Denmark and Sweden are not exposed to a risk of demand curtailment in Global Ambition scenario 2040 driven by the lower cooperation between Denmark and Poland which increases the cooperation between Denmark and Sweden. Note that transit disruption cases simulations are based on the regional assessment, in this regard, ­countries outside the regional zone are not asked to cooperate further.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.44: PCI infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under peak day situation.

3.2.1.2 2-week cold spell

Existing Infrastructure level

As for peak day, the commissioning of Turkstream flowing gas to Bulgaria, and the commissioning of ­Nordstream 2 with enhanced downstream infrastructure enabling further redirection of flow from West to East, making Southern Eastern Europe more resilient to Ukraine transit disruption. Simulation results show that, apart from the countries already exposed to risk of demand curtailment without any transit disruption, ­Romania and Poland face risk of additional demand curtailment. Figure 3.48 shows the ­results of the ­assessment.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Simulation ­results show that apart from the countries already exposed to risk of demand curtailment without any transit disruption, the European gas system is ­resilient to a Ukraine transit disruption.

2030-2040
National Trends

Simulation results show infrastructure limitations towards Romania, limiting the flow from Bulgaria and Hungary, being expose to demand curtailment in 2030 (ca.7 %) further increasing in 2040 (ca.29 %) driven by an increase of the demand combined with a reduction of the indigenous ­production from 2030 till 2040. See Figure 3.45 and Figure 3.46.

Poland is exposed to a limited risk of demand ­curtailment (9 %) in 2040, being impacted by the Ukraine transit disruption, showing infrastructure limitations towards Poland from its neighbouring countries.

Figure 3.45: Infrastructure limitations towards ­Romania under Ukraine disruption, ­Existing infrastructure, 2030.

Figure 3.46: 2-week cold spell demand and production in Romania in National Trends scenario in GWh/d.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

In Romania the demand curtailment is fully ­mitigated, thanks to lower demand combined with a higher national production coming from ­renewables (biomethane and power to gas), in both scenarios compared to National trends. See ­Figure 3.47.

Poland faces an additional risk of demand ­curtailment under a Ukraine route disruption due to infrastructure limitations with all its neighbouring countries.

The increased of the risk of demand curtailment compared to the assessment of climatic stress ­conditions without transit disruption shows that Poland is being additionally impacted by the Ukraine ­transit disruption:

  • In 2030: from 13 – 11 % to 22 – 19 % for ­Distributed Energy and Global Ambition ­respectively
  • In 2040: from 17 – 20 % to 24 – 28 % for ­Distributed Energy and Global Ambition, ­respectively.

Figure 3.47: 2-week cold spell demand and production in Romania in COP 21 scenarios in GWh/d.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.48: Existing infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under 2-week cold spell situation.

Low Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that the implementation of FID projects improves the situation of the countries ­affected by the Ukraine transit route disruption. Figure 3.49 shows the results described ­below.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Simulation ­results show that the European gas ­system is resilient to a Ukraine transit disruption. No country is ­exposed to demand curtailment and FID projects help to increase the remaining ­flexibility all around ­Europe.

2030 – 2040
National Trends

Simulation results show that Romania fully ­mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and reduces its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 from 29 % in Existing infrastructure level to 19 % in Low infrastructure level, showing that FID projects help to improve the situation within the country.

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 thanks to the commissioning of FID ­projects.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that Poland fully mitigates the risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and ­reduces its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 for both ­scenarios thanks to the commissioning of FID ­projects that allow neighbouring countries to ­cooperate with Poland.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.49: Low infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under 2-week cold spell situation.

Advanced Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that the European gas system is resilient to the Ukraine transit disruption thanks to the commissioning of Advanced-status projects. Results are shown in Figure 3.50.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

As for Low ­infrastructure level, the results show that the European gas system is resilient to a Ukraine transit ­disruption. Advanced-status projects help to ­increase the remaining flexibility all around Europe.

2030-2040
National Trends

Simulation results show that Romania fully ­mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 thanks to the investment of advanced-status ­projects.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 for both ­scenarios thanks to the commissioning of advanced-­status projects.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.50: Advanced infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under 2-week cold spell situation.

PCI Infrastructure level

This infrastructure level assesses the different scenarios under 2-week cold spell demand together with Ukraine transit disruption against the current European gas system infrastructure complemented with FID projects (Low infrastructure level) and all projects included in the latest 4th PCI list showing the benefits stemming from the implementation of the latest PCI list. Results are shown in Figure 3.51.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal, as for Low ­infrastructure level, the results show that the ­European gas system is resilient to a Ukraine transit disruption. PCI projects help to ­increase the remaining flexibility all around Europe.

2030-2040
National Trends

Thanks to the commissioning of projects included in 4th PCI list Romania fully mitigates its risk of ­demand curtailment (National Trends 2040).

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Thanks to the commissioning of projects included in 4th PCI list Poland fully mitigates its risk of ­demand curtailment in 2040 for both scenarios.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.51: PCI infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under 2-week cold spell situation.

3.2.1.3 2-week Dunkelflaute

Existing Infrastructure level

As for peak day and 2-week cold spell, assesses the commissioning of Turkstream flowing gas to Bulgaria, makes Southern Eastern Europe more resilient to Ukraine transit disruption. Simulation results show that, apart from the countries already exposed to risk of demand curtailment without any transit disruption, ­Romania and Poland face risk of additional demand curtailment. Figure 3.55 shows the ­results of the ­assessment.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal, simulation ­results show that apart from the countries already ­exposed to risk of demand curtailment without any transit disruption, the European gas system is ­resilient to a Ukraine transit disruption.

2030-2040
National Trends

Simulation results show infrastructure limitations towards Romania, limiting the flow from Bulgaria and Hungary, being exposed to demand curtailment in 2030 (ca.11 %) further increasing in 2040 (ca.30 %) driven by an increase of the demand combined with a reduction of the indigenous ­production from 2030 till 2040. See Figures 3.52 and 3.53.

Poland is exposed to a limited risk of demand ­curtailment (19 %) in 2040, being impacted by the Ukraine transit disruption, showing infrastructure limitations towards Poland from its neighbouring countries.

Figure 3.52: Infrastructure limitations towards Romania under Ukraine transit disruption, Existing infrastructure, ­National Trends ,2030.

Figure 3.53: 2-week cold spell/Dunkelflaute demand and production in Romania in National Trends scenario in GWh/d.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Romania thanks to lower demand combined with a higher national production coming from ­renewables (biomethane), in both scenarios compared to ­National trends, the demand curtailment is fully mitigated in the country. See Figure 3.54.

Some infrastructure limitations between Poland and its neighbouring countries expose Poland to a risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios and years.

The increased of the risk of demand curtailment compared to the assessment of climatic stress ­conditions without transit disruption shows that Poland is being additionally impacted by the Ukraine transit disruption:

  • In 2030: from 14 – 12 % to 23 – 20 % for ­Distributed Energy and Global Ambition ­respectively
  • In 2040: from 20 – 21 % to 27 – 29 % for ­Distributed Energy and Global Ambition ­respectively.

Figure 3.54: 2-week cold spell/Dunkelflaute demand and production in Romania in Distributed Energy & ­Global ­Ambition scenarios in GWh/d.

Figure 3.55: Existing infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under 2-week Dunkelflaute situation.

Low Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that the implementation of FID projects improve the situation of the countries ­affected by the Ukraine transit route disruption. Figure 3.56 shows the results described ­below:

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Simulation ­results show that the European gas ­system is ­resilient to a 2-week Dunkelflaute ­demand case showing higher remaining flexibility all over Europe thanks to the commissioning of FID ­projects. ­Additionally, the remaining flexibility in Romania ­increases from 1 % in Existing infrastructure level to 15 % in Low infrastructure level (in both scenarios).

2030 – 2040
National Trends

Simulation results show that Romania fully ­mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and decreases its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 from 30 % in Existing infrastructure level to 20 % in Low infrastructure level, showing that FID projects help to improve the situation within the country.

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 thanks to the commissioning of FID ­projects.

COP 21 scenarios
Distributed Energy and Global Ambition

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and reduces its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 compared to Existing infrastructure level (from 27 – 29 % to 9 – 11 % for Distributed Energy and Global Ambition respectively) scenarios thanks to the commissioning of FID projects that allow neighbouring ­countries to cooperate with Poland.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.56: Low infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under 2-week Dunkelflaute situation.

Advanced Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that the European gas system is resilient to the Ukraine transit disruption thanks to the commissioning of Advanced-status projects. Results are shown in Figure 3.57.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The European gas system is resilient to a 2-week Dunkelflaute showing higher remaining flexibility all over Europe thanks to the commissioning of advanced-status projects. Additionally, the remaining flexibility in ­Romania surpasses the 15 % up to 67 %.

2030-2040
National Trends

Simulation results show that Romania fully ­mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 thanks to the investment of advanced-status ­projects.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 for both ­scenarios thanks to further cooperation with ­neighbouring countries brought by the investment of ­advanced-status projects.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.57: Advanced infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under 2-week Dunkelflaute situation.

PCI Infrastructure level

This infrastructure level assesses the different scenarios under 2-week Dunkelflaute demand together with Ukraine transit disruption against the current European gas system infrastructure complemented with FID projects (Low infrastructure level) and all projects included in the latest 4th PCI list showing the benefits stemming from the implementation of the latest PCI list. Results are shown in Figure 3.58.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The European gas system is resilient to a 2-week Dunkelflaute showing higher remaining flexibility along Europe thanks to the commissioning of PCI projects. ­Additionally, the remaining flexibility in ­Romania ­surpasses the 15 % up to 66 %.

2030-2040
National Trends

Thanks to the commissioning of projects included in 4th PCI list Romania fully mitigates its risk of ­demand curtailment (National Trends 2040).

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Thanks to the commissioning of projects included in 4th PCI list Poland fully mitigates its risk of ­demand curtailment in 2040 for both scenarios ­ensuring further cooperation with neighbouring countries.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.58: PCI infrastructure level: Ukraine transit disruption under 2-week Dunkelflaute situation.