System Assessment Report

Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal scenarios ­results show an additional risk of demand ­curtailment in Romania (ca. 11 %) due to ­infrastructure limitation from Hungary and Bulgaria towards Romania and from Slovakia and Austria ­towards Hungary. ­

Romania is exposed to a significant level of demand curtailment in 2030 (ca. 22 %) and it worsens in 2040 (ca. 38 %) due to infrastructure limitations with Bulgaria and Hungary in a context of sharp ­decline of the indigenous natural gas production not being compensated by any new renewable gas ­production. See Figure 4.39.

Poland is exposed to a higher risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 compared to the climatic stress conditions (without transit disruption) ­assessment from 15 % to 23 %.

Romania is not exposed to demand curtailment thanks to lower demand combined with higher ­indigenous production coming from renewables ­(biomethane and power to gas) alleviating the ­congestions in the interconnections with Hungary and Bulgaria. See Figure 4.40.

Due to the transition away from coal in power ­generation and heating generation and the ­consequent of a significant increase of its peak ­demand, and ­despite the development of ­conventional and ­renewable gases generation, ­Poland faces an additional risk of demand ­curtailment under a Ukraine route disruption due to infrastructure limitations with all its neighbouring countries. Throughout 2030 to 2040, the risk of ­demand curtailment increases from ca. 32 % in 2030 to ca. 40 % in 2040 for both scenarios.

The European gas system is resilient to a peak day situation in case of Ukraine transit disruption.

In the Balkan region, FID projects fully mitigate the risk of demand curtailment for Romania.

FID projects bring infrastructure reinforcement in Romania and reduce the risk of demand ­curtailment in 2030 from 22 % in Existing infrastructure level to 7 % in Low infrastructure level.

FID projects partially mitigate the exposure of ­demand curtailment in Poland from 32 % (Existing infrastructure level) to 15 %.

FID projects bring infrastructure reinforcement in Romania and reduce the risk of demand ­curtailment from 38 % Existing infrastructure level to 28 %.

Thanks to the commissioning of FID projects, ­allowing neighbouring countries to cooperate, ­Poland fully mitigates its exposure to demand ­curtailment.

In Poland FID projects partially mitigate the ­exposure of demand curtailment from 40 % ­(Existing ­infrastructure level) to 25 %.

In Romania, in Global Ambition scenario, FID ­projects bring additional flexibility and fully mitigate the exposure to demand curtailment.

The European gas system is resilient to a Peak day situation in case of Ukraine transit disruption. The commissioning of advanced status projects increases the ­remaining flexibility all around Europe above 15 %.

Simulation results show that advanced-status ­projects improve the situation in Romania fully ­mitigating its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and 2040 and increasing the remaining flexibility in the country.

Advanced projects fully mitigate the risk of demand curtailment in Poland in both scenarios and years by allowing neighbouring countries to further cooperate. Advanced-status projects help increasing the remaining flexibility in Western European countries in Global Ambition 2030.

The European gas system, including FID projects is resilient to a peak day situation in case of Ukraine transit ­disruption. The commissioning of additional ­projects ­included in the 4^th PCI list improve the ­remaining flexibility, especially in South-Eastern ­Europe.

The projects included in the 4^th PCI list help ­Romania to fully mitigate its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2030 and to reduce the risk of ­demand curtailment in 2040 from 28 % in Low infrastructure level to 7 % in PCI infrastructure level.

Thanks to the commissioning of projects included in the 4^th PCI list, Poland increases its remaining flexibility above 15 %.

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and decreases its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 for both scenarios thanks to the ­commissioning of projects included in the 4^th PCI list, ­allowing neighbouring countries to ­cooperate. Western European countries increase their ­remaining flexibility in Global Ambition 2030.

Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal, simulation ­results show that apart from the countries already ­exposed to risk of demand curtailment without any transit disruption, the European gas system is ­resilient to a Ukraine transit disruption.

Simulation results show infrastructure limitations towards Romania, limiting the flow from Bulgaria and Hungary, being exposed to demand curtailment in 2030 (ca.11 %) further increasing in 2040 (ca.30 %) driven by an increase of the demand combined with a reduction of the indigenous ­production from 2030 till 2040. See Figures 4.52 and 4.53.

Poland is exposed to a limited risk of demand ­curtailment (19 %) in 2040, being impacted by the Ukraine transit disruption, showing infrastructure limitations towards Poland from its neighbouring countries.

Romania thanks to lower demand combined with a higher national production coming from ­renewables (biomethane), in both scenarios compared to ­National trends, the demand curtailment is fully mitigated in the country. See Figure 4.54.

Some infrastructure limitations between Poland and its neighbouring countries expose Poland to a risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios and years.

The increased of the risk of demand curtailment compared to the assessment of climatic stress ­conditions without transit disruption shows that Poland is being additionally impacted by the Ukraine transit disruption:

Simulation ­results show that the European gas ­system is ­resilient to a 2-week Dunkelflaute ­demand case showing higher remaining flexibility all over Europe thanks to the commissioning of FID ­projects. ­Additionally, the remaining flexibility in Romania ­increases from 1 % in Existing infrastructure level to 15 % in Low infrastructure level (in both scenarios).

Simulation results show that Romania fully ­mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and decreases its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 from 30 % in Existing infrastructure level to 20 % in Low infrastructure level, showing that FID projects help to improve the situation within the country.

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 thanks to the commissioning of FID ­projects.

Distributed Energy and Global Ambition

Simulation results show that Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 and reduces its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 compared to Existing infrastructure level (from 27 – 29 % to 9 – 11 % for Distributed Energy and Global Ambition respectively) scenarios thanks to the commissioning of FID projects that allow neighbouring ­countries to cooperate with Poland.

The European gas system is resilient to a 2-week Dunkelflaute showing higher remaining flexibility all over Europe thanks to the commissioning of advanced-status projects. Additionally, the remaining flexibility in ­Romania surpasses the 15 % up to 67 %.

Simulation results show that Romania fully ­mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 thanks to the investment of advanced-status ­projects.

Simulation results show that Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 for both ­scenarios thanks to further cooperation with ­neighbouring countries brought by the investment of ­advanced-status projects.

The European gas system is resilient to a 2-week Dunkelflaute showing higher remaining flexibility along Europe thanks to the commissioning of PCI projects. ­Additionally, the remaining flexibility in ­Romania ­surpasses the 15 % up to 66 %.

Thanks to the commissioning of projects included in 4^th PCI list Romania fully mitigates its risk of ­demand curtailment (National Trends 2040).

Thanks to the commissioning of projects included in 4^th PCI list Poland fully mitigates its risk of ­demand curtailment in 2040 for both scenarios ­ensuring further cooperation with neighbouring countries.