3.2Supply Route Disruptions

3.2.2 Belarus disruption

This assessment considers the disruption of all gas imports via Belarus during climatic stress ­situations and the risk group is formed by Czech Republic, Belgium, Finland, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, ­Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland and ­Slovakia.

Figure 3.59: Risk group for Belarus transit disruption.

3.2.2.1 Peak Day

Existing Infrastructure level

The existing infrastructure is generally resilient to a disruption of gas supply from Belarus in climatic stress situations. Results are very similar compared to climatic stress assessment without transit disruption. ­Nevertheless, Poland is exposed to additional risk of demand curtailment driven by its direct import ­interconnection with Belarus. Figure 3.61 shows the evolution of the existing infrastructure level described below.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal scenarios ­results show that Poland faces a limited risk of ­demand curtailment driven by no imports supply from Belarus together with infrastructure limitations with its neighbouring countries and full utilisation of the import capacity from Ukraine. See Figure 3.60.

Figure 3.60: Infrastructure limitations towards Poland under Belarus transit disruption, Existing infrastructure, 2025.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland is exposed to a limited risk of demand ­curtailment in 2030 (ca. 10 %) follow by a high risk of demand curtailment in 2040 (ca. 31 %) mainly driven by no imports supply from Belarus, together with infrastructure limitations with its neighbouring countries and full utilisation of the ­import capacity from Ukraine. The increase of ­polish demand from 2030 to 2040 could be mainly explain by the ­displacement of coal and oil in ­heating and power generation sector.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Poland faces an additional risk of demand curtailment under a Belarus transit disruption due to infrastructure limitations with its neighbouring countries and full utilisation of the import capacity from Ukraine. Aditionally, despite the development of conventional and renewable gases generation, the transition away from coal in the power and heating generation increases of its peak demand. Throughout 2030 to 2040, the risk of demand curtailment increases from 39 – 38 % in 2030 and from 44 – 46 % in 2040 in 2040 Distributed Energy and Global Ambition ­scenarios, respectively.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.61: Existing infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under peak day situation.

Low Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that FID projects improve the situation for those countries affected by the Belarus transit disruption. Figure 3.64 shows the Low Infrastructure level results described below.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The commissioning of FID projects fully mitigate the risk of ­demand curtailment in Poland.

2030 – 2040
National Trends

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2030 reaching a remaining flexibility of 15 % and reduces its risk of demand curtailment from 31 % in Existing infrastructure level to 12 % in Low ­infrastructure level thanks to the commissioning of FID projects. The commissioning of the FID project Lithuania-Poland interconnection enables the ­cooperation between both countries reducing ­Lithuania’s remaining flexibility to 6 % in 2040.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Poland reduces its risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios and years, nevertheless, the ­commissioning of FID projects is not enough to ­fully mitigate the gap of infrastructure in Poland. Poland has an infrastructure limitation restricting the flow from Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Lithuania to Poland. See Figure 3.62.

To a lesser extent, Lithuania faces a limited risk of demand curtailment in Global Ambition 2040 (9 %) driven by the commissioning of the interconnection Lithuania-Poland enabling the cooperation between both countries, together with an infrastructure limitation restricting the flow from Latvia to Lithuania. Lithuania is exposed to risk of demand curtailment despite the fact that it is able to satisfy its demand. See Figure 3.63.

Figure 3.63: Infrastructure limitations towards Lithuania under Belarus transit disruption, Low ­infrastructure, Global Ambition, 2040.

Figure 3.62: Infrastructure limitations towards Poland under Belarus transit disruption, Low infrastructure, ­Global ­Ambition, 2040

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.64: Low infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under peak day situation.

Advanced Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that the inclusion of advanced-status projects help to cope with demand ­curtailments caused by Belarus transit disruption. Figure 3.65 shows the Advanced ­infrastructure level ­results ­described below.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The European gas system is resilient to a Peak day situation in case of Belarus transit disruption.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 reaching a remaining flexibility of 30 % thanks to the commissioning of advanced-­status projects. Lithuania’s remaining flexibility ­increases in 2040 from 6 % in Low infrastructure level to 100 % Advanced infrastructure level thanks to the commissioning of advanced-status projects.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in both scenarios and years, the commissioning of advanced-status projects help to mitigate the gap of infrastructure in Poland.

Lithuania fully mitigate its risk of demand ­curtailment as well in Global Ambition 2040 reaching a remaining flexibility of 27 %. Advanced-status projects cope with the infrastructure limitation in the area.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.65: Advanced infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under peak day situation.

PCI Infrastructure level

This infrastructure level assesses the different scenarios under peak day demand and Belarus transit ­disruption against the current European gas system infrastructure complemented with FID projects (Low infrastructure level) and all projects included in the latest 4th PCI list. The results show the benefits ­stemming from the implementation of the latest PCI list. Figure 3.66 shows the evolution of the PCI ­infrastructure ­level.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The European gas system, including FID projects is resilient to a peak day situation in case of Belarus transit ­disruption.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 reaching a remaining flexibility of 10 % thanks to the commissioning of advanced-­status projects. Lithuania’s remaining flexibility ­increases in 2040 from 6 % in Low infrastructure level to 100 % in PCI infrastructure level.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Poland reduces its risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios and years1:

  • In 2030: from 22 – 21 % in Low infrastructure level to 11 – 9 % in PCI infrastructure level for Distributed Energy and Global Ambition ­respectively,
  • in 2040: from 30 – 32 % in Low infrastructure level to 12 – 21 % in PCI infrastructure level for Distributed Energy and Global Ambition ­respectively.

Nevertheless, the commissioning of PCI projects is not enough to mitigate the gap of infrastructure in Poland.

Lithuania fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in Global Ambition 2040 reaching a ­remaining flexibility of 27 % thanks to the ­commissioning of PCI projects.

1 Differing from the climatic stress conditions assessment without transit disruption (section 3.1 of this Assessment Report) Denmark and Sweden are not exposed to a risk of demand curtailment in Global Ambition scenario 2040 driven by the lower cooperation between Denmark and Poland which increases the cooperation between Denmark and Sweden. Note that transit disruption cases simulations are based on the regional assessment, in this regard, ­countries outside the regional zone are not asked to cooperate further.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.66: PCI infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under peak day situation.

3.2.2.2 2-week cold spell

Existing Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that during 2-week cold spell demand situation the EU gas system is resilient to a Belarus transit disruption. Apart from the countries impacted during climatic stress conditions (without transit disruption), Poland is additionally exposed to a risk of demand curtailment due to its direct ­connection with Belarus. Figure 3.68 shows the results of the assessment.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Poland faces a limited risk of demand curtailment (5 %) in Gas Before Coal scenario driven by no ­imports supply coming from Belarus and infrastructure limitation with its neighbouring countries. In Coal Before Gas, Poland has 0 % remaining ­flexibility. See Figure 3.67.

Figure 3.67: Infrastructure limitations towards Poland under Belarus disruption, Existing infrastructure, Gas Before Coal, 2025.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland has 0 % remaining flexibility in 2030 while in 2040 is exposed to a risk of demand curtailment of 19 % mainly driven by no imports supply from Belarus, infrastructure limitation and higher ­ademand (principally explained by the displacement of coal and oil in heating in the power generation sector).

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show an increased risk of ­demand curtailment in Poland (from 30 – 28 % in 2030 to 32 – 35 % in 2040 in Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios respectively) mainly driven by no imports supply from Belarus and ­infrastructure limitations with its neighbouring ­countries.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.68: Existing infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under 2-week cold spell situation.

Low Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that the implementation of FID projects improve the situation in Poland, ­nevertheless, there are still some infrastructure gaps to be solved. Figure 3.69 shows the ­results described below.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in Gas ­Before Coal scenario up to 25 % ­remaining ­flexibility. In Coal Before Gas, Poland reaches 26 % remaining flexibility as well, above 15 % thanks to the ­commissioning of FID Projects.

2030 – 2040
National Trends

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 reaching 5 % of remaining flexibility while in 2030 surpasses the 15 % remaining ­flexibility up to 27 % thanks to the commissioning of FID projects.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that the commissioning of FID projects is not enough to cope with the risk of demand curtailment in Poland. Nevertheless, ­Poland decreases its risk of demand curtailment compared to Existing infrastructure level from 30 – 28 % to 10 – 7 % in 2030 and from 32 – 35 % to 14 – 17 % for Distributed Energy and Global ­Ambition scenarios, respectively.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.69: Low infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under 2-week cold spell situation.

Advanced Infrastructure level

Advanced infrastructure level assesses the different scenarios under 2-week cold spell demand and ­Belarus transit disruption against the current European gas system infrastructure complemented with all ­advanced-status projects submitted during TYNDP2020 data collection. Results show further ­improvements in terms of infrastructure gaps. Results are shown in Figure 3.70.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

The commissioning of advanced-status projects in the area ­increase the remaining flexibility in Poland up to 89 %.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland increases its remaining flexibility from 27 % up to 90 % in 2030 and from 5 % up to 56 % in 2040 thanks to the commissioning of advanced-­status projects in the area.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that the commissioning of advanced-status projects in the area cope with the risk of demand curtailment in Poland in both ­scenarios and years surpassing a 15 % remaining flexibility.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.70: Advanced infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under 2-week cold spell situation.

PCI Infrastructure level

This infrastructure level assesses the different scenarios under 2-week cold spell demand together with ­Belarus transit disruption against the current European gas system infrastructure complemented with FID projects (Low infrastructure level) and all projects included in the latest 4th PCI list showing the benefits stemming from the implementation of the latest PCI list. Results are shown in Figure 3.71.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal, the commissioning of PCI projects help to increase the ­remaining flexibility in Poland up to 49 – 48 % in both ­scenarios, respectively.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland increases its remaining flexibility from 27 % up to 71 % in 2030 and from 5 % up to 37 % in 2040 thanks to the commissioning of PCI projects in the area.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that thanks to the ­commissioning of PCI projects in the area help ­Poland to ­fully mitigate its risk of demand ­curtailment in both scenarios and years.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.71: PCI infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under 2-week cold spell situation.

3.2.2.3 2-week Dunkelflaute

Existing Infrastructure level

As for peak day and 2-week cold spell and apart from the countries already exposed to risk of demand ­curtailment without any transit disruption, simulation result show that Poland faces of additional ­demand ­curtailment due to its direct connection with Belarus. Figure 3.73 shows the results of the ­assessment.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Poland ­faces a limited risk of demand curtailment (ca. 5 %) in both scenarios driven by no imports supply ­coming from Belarus together with infrastructure limitation from its neighbouring countries and the import capacity from Ukraine fully used. The ­increased of the risk of demand curtailment ­compared to the ­assessment of climatic stress conditions without transit disruption shows that Poland is being ­additionally impacted by the Belarus ­transit ­disruption. See Figure 3.72.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland is exposed to a risk of demand curtailment of 12 % in 2030 and 19 % in 2040 mainly driven by infrastructure limitation from its neighbouring countries and the import capacity from Ukraine fully used.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Some infrastructure limitations between Poland and its neighbouring countries expose Poland to a risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios and years (31 – 29 % in 2030 and 48 – 48 % in 2040 for both scenarios).

Figure 3.72: Infrastructure limitations towards Poland under Belarus transit disruption, Existing infrastructure, 2025.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.73: Existing infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under 2-week Dunkelflaute situation.

Low Infrastructure level

Simulation results show that the implementation of FID projects improve the situation of the countries ­affected by the Belarus transit disruption. Figure 3.74 shows the results described below.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment increasing its remaining flexibility up to 24 % in both scenarios, thanks to the commissioning of FID projects in the area.

2030 – 2040
National Trends

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2030 increasing its remaining flexibility up to 14 % while decreases its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 from 27 % in Existing infrastructure level to 6 % in Low infrastructure level thanks to the ­commissioning of FID projects in the area that allow neighbouring countries to cooperate with Poland.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that the commissioning of FID projects improve the cooperation between ­Poland and its neighbouring countries lowering its risk of demand curtailment from 31 – 29 % in ­Existing infrastructure level to 16 – 13 % in 2030 for both scenarios and from 35 – 36 % in Existing infrastructure to 17 – 18 % in 2040 for both scenarios.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.74: Low infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under 2-week Dunkelflaute situation.

Advanced Infrastructure level

Simulation results show further improvements in terms of infrastructure gaps thanks to the commissioning of Advanced-status projects. Figure 3.75) shows the results described below.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Thanks to the commissioning of advanced-status projects in the area Poland increases its remaining flexibility up to 87 % in both scenarios.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand ­curtailment in 2040 increasing its remaining flexibility up to 40 % thanks to the commissioning of ­advanced-status projects in the area that allow neighbouring countries to further cooperate with Poland.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that the commissioning of advanced-status projects improve the cooperation between Poland and its neighbouring countries ­fully mitigating its risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios and increasing its ­remaining ­flexibility above 15 %.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.75: Advanced infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under 2-week Dunkelflaute situation.

PCI Infrastructure level

This infrastructure level assesses the different scenarios under 2-week Dunkelflaute demand together with Belarus transit disruption against the current European gas system infrastructure complemented with FID projects (Low infrastructure level) and all projects included in the latest 4th PCI list showing the benefits stemming from the implementation of the latest PCI list. Figure 3.76 shows the results ­described below.

2025
Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal

Thanks to the commissioning of PCI projects in the area Poland increases its remaining flexibility up to 46 % in both scenarios.

2030-2040
National Trends

Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2040 increasing its remaining flexibility up to 22 % thanks to the commissioning of PCI ­projects in the area that allow neighbouring ­countries to cooperate with Poland.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Simulation results show that the commissioning of PCI projects improve the cooperation between ­Poland and its neighbouring countries fully mitigating its risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios. Nevertheless, its remaining flexibility is still below 15 % for both scenarios and years, being 0 % in Global Ambition 2040.

SAR Figure 3 Curtailment legende

Figure 3.76: PCI infrastructure level: Belarus transit disruption under 2-week Dunkelflaute situation.