Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal
The commissioning of FID projects fully mitigate the risk of demand curtailment in Poland.
Poland fully mitigates its risk of demand curtailment in 2030 reaching a remaining flexibility of 15 % and reduces its risk of demand curtailment from 31 % in Existing infrastructure level to 12 % in Low infrastructure level thanks to the commissioning of FID projects. The commissioning of the FID project Lithuania-Poland interconnection enables the cooperation between both countries reducing Lithuania’s remaining flexibility to 6 % in 2040.
Distributed Energy and
Poland reduces its risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios and years, nevertheless, the commissioning of FID projects is not enough to fully mitigate the gap of infrastructure in Poland. Poland has an infrastructure limitation restricting the flow from Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Lithuania to Poland. See Figure 4.62.
To a lesser extent, Lithuania faces a limited risk of demand curtailment in Global Ambition 2040 (9 %) driven by the commissioning of the interconnection Lithuania-Poland enabling the cooperation between both countries, together with an infrastructure limitation restricting the flow from Latvia to Lithuania. Lithuania is exposed to risk of demand curtailment despite the fact that it is able to satisfy its demand. See Figure 4.63.