The further development of indigenous renewable gases production participates to decreasing the overall dependence of the EU on imports and fully compensate the decline of the conventional indigenous production. Equally, the global approach towards climate change enhances the production of renewable and decarbonised gases outside the EU and sustains a global and decarbonised gas market. Consequently, the production and imports of renewable and decarbonised gases reduces the carbon intensity of the gas mix and demand in industry and transport further shifting from carbon intensive fuels to gas compared to National Trends.
In 2040, as in the Distributed Energy scenario, Europe in general could satisfy its demand with alternative supply sources of gas and show close to no dependence on Russian gas supply.
However, if most of the EU countries show no dependence at all on Russian supply, Central-Eastern Europe (Denmark, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia) shows a dependence close to 40 % revealing some infrastructure limitation between this group of countries and their neighbours: