3 Security of Supply Needs

Security of supply needs are assessed by measuring the ability of the ­European gas system to ensure the continuity of gas supply to all countries under ­various stress conditions.

This section assesses the resilience of the ­European gas system to cope with various stressful events:

  • Climatic stress
  • Supply route disruptions
  • Infrastructure disruptions

The resilience of the gas system is measured by ­calculating the Remaining Flexibility (RF indicator) of the system when coping with the various stressful events and, be it the case, the level of demand curtailment (CR indicator: Curtailment rate) to which the EU is exposed. Those indicators are ­calculated at country/balancing zone level over the whole-time horizon of the TYNDP assessment.

Remaining flexibility measures the resilience of a Zone as the additional share of demand each country can cover before no longer being able to fulfil its demand without creating new demand curtailment in other Zones. The remaining flexibility is expressed as a percentage in the range 0 to 15 % and > 15 %.

Demand curtailment is the value of the unsatisfied demand. The curtailment rate is the ratio between demand curtailment and demand. The curtailment rate is expressed as a percentage in the range 5 to 15 %, 15 to 30 %, 30 to 50 % and > 50 %. ­Additionally, curtailment rate in the range 0 to 5 % is ­interpreted as 0 % remaining flexibility as a result of model allocation.

Demand elasticity

When assessing the impact of a climatic stress on the gas infrastructure, the demand is considered static and is not responding to the possibility of gas supply deficit or gas price signals. This assumption is necessary to perform a consistent assessment across the different years and the different ­scenarios of the TYNDP.

Indeed, as observed in past events, a high demand event, especially if combined with a tight supply or infrastructure situation may trigger a demand ­reaction to the increase of prices, hence resulting in a reduction of the demand. However, such demand elasticity is subject to various assumptions that ­differs from one country to the other, and that ­ENTSOG cannot access.

Additionally, in order to be consistent and transparent, the level of exposure to demand curtailment is always presented in percentage of the demand ­assuming no demand reaction to the different stressful events.

Infrastructure levels

The assessment shows how the EU gas system evolves from an Existing infrastructure level to a Low, Advanced and PCI infrastructure level:

  • The Existing infrastructure level is the basis for identification of priority areas facing an ­investment gap. It includes existing ­infrastructure as of 1st January 2019 and all ­projects submitted to TYNDP 2020 having made their Final ­Investment Decision (FID) and expected to be ­commissioned not later than 31st December 2019.
  • The Low infrastructure level consists of the ­Existing infrastructure level complemented with all projects having taken the FID during the ­TYNDP 2020 project collection. Sixty-three FID projects have been submitted for this TYNDP edition.
  • The Advanced infrastructure level is assessed to determine the further impact of the projects having an advanced status. The Advanced ­status is applied to all projects that, based on the information submitted, have commissioning year expected at the latest by 31st December of the year of the TYNDP project data ­collection (i. e. 2019) + 6 years (i. e. 2025) and: whose permitting phase has started ahead of the TYNDP project data collection, or FEED has started, or the project has been selected for ­receiving CEF2016–2020 grants for FEED ahead of the TYNDP project data collection. Sixty-six projects with advanced status have been submitted for this TYNDP edition.
  • The PCI infrastructure level shows the benefits of the 4th PCI list projects, independently from their advancement status. There are 62 ­relevant projects for this infrastructure level. Below the updated list of all projects included in the 4th PCI list.
CodeProject namePromoterCommissioning year
LNG-A-30Shannon LNG Terminal and Connecting PipelineShannon LNG Ltd2022
TRA-A-31Melita TransGas PipelineMelita TransGas Co. Ltd2024
TRA-A-429Adaptation L- gas - H-gasGRTgaz and Storengy2025
TRA-F-500L/H Conversion BelgiumFluxys Belgium2026
TRA-F-275Poland - Slovakia Gas Interconnection (PL section)GAZ-SYSTEM S.A.2021
TRA-F-190Poland - Slovakia interconnectionEustream,a.s.
(a joint-stock company)
2021
TRA-N-245North - South Gas Corridor in Eastern PolandGAZ-SYSTEM S.A.2029
TRA-N-636Development of Transmission Capacity at Slovak-Hungarian interconnectorMagyar Gáz Tranzit Zrt.2022
TRA-N-524Enhancement of Transmission Capacity of Slovak-Hungarian interconnectorMagyar Gáz Tranzit Zrt.2022
TRA-N-1235Firm transmission capacity increase at the IP Veľké ZlievceEustream,a.s.2022
LNG-F-82LNG terminal Krk (first phase)LNG Hrvatska d.o.o.2020
TRA-F-90LNG evacuation pipeline Omišalj - Zlobin (Croatia)Plinacro Ltd2020
TRA-F-334Compressor station 1 at the Croatian gas transmission systemPlinacro Ltd2019
TRA-F-378Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB Project)ICGB a.d.2020
TRA-N-128Compressor Station KipiDESFA S.A.2024
TRA-F-298Balkan Gas Hub – Modernization and rehabilitation of the Bulgarian GTSBulgartransgaz EAD2022
TRA-N-137Balkan Gas Hub – Interconnection Bulgaria – SerbiaBulgartransgaz EAD2022
LNG-A-62LNG terminal in northern Greece / Alexandroupolis – LNG SectionGastrade S.A.2022
LNG-A-63LNG terminal in northern Greece / Alexandroupolis – Pipeline SectionGastrade S.A.2022
TRA-N-137Balkan Gas Hub – Interconnection Bulgaria - SerbiaDESFA S.A.2022
UGS-A-138Balkan Gas Hub - UGS Chiren ExpansionBulgartransgaz EAD2025
UGS-N-385South Kavala Underground Gas Storage facilityHellenic Republic Asset Development Fund2023
UGS-A-233DepomuresEngie Romania SA2021
UGS-N-371Sarmasel undeground gas storage in RomaniaSNGN ROMGAZ SA - FILIALA DE INMAGAZINARE GAZE NATURALE DEPOGAZ PLOIESTI SRL2024
TRA-N-325Slovenian-Hungarian interconnectorFGSZ Ltd.2023
TRA-N-112R15/1 Pince - Lendava - KidričevoPlinovodi d.o.o.2023
TRA-N-92CS Ajdovščina, 1st phase of upgradePlinovodi d.o.o.2025
TRA-N-299M3/1 Šempeter - VodicePlinovodi d.o.o.2026
TRA-N-1227Gorizia plant upgradeSnam Rete Gas S.p.A.2026
TRA-F-358Development on the Romanian territory of the NTS (BG–RO-HU-AT)-Phase ISNTGN Transgaz S.A.2020
TRA-A-123Városföld CSFGSZ Ltd.2022
TRA-A-1322Development on the Romanian territory of the NTS (BG–RO-HU-AT)-Phase IISNTGN Transgaz SA2022
TRA-A-362Development on the Romanian territory of the Southern Transmission CorridorSNTGN Transgaz SA2021
TRA-A-377Romanian-Hungarian reverse flow Hungarian section 2nd stageFGSZ Ltd.2022
TRA-A-86Interconnection Croatia/Slovenia (Lučko - Zabok - Jezerišće - Sotla)Plinacro Ltd2021
TRA-N-94CS Kidričevo, 2nd phase of upgradePlinovodi d.o.o.2023
TRA-N-1057Compressor stations 2 and 3 at the Croatian gas tranmission systemPlinacro Ltd2029
TRA-N-361GCA 2015/08: Entry/Exit MurfeldGAS CONNECT AUSTRIA GmbH2023
TRA-N-389Upgrade of Murfeld/Ceršak interconnection (M1/3 Interconnection Ceršak)Plinovodi d.o.o.2023
TRA-N-390Upgrade of Rogatec interconnection (M1A/1 Interconnection Rogatec)Plinovodi d.o.o.2021
LNG-N-947FSRU Polish Baltic Sea CoastGAZ-SYSTEM S.A.2025
TRA-A-339Trans-CaspianW-Stream Caspian Pipeline Company OU2022
TRA-N-1138South Caucasus Pipeline Future Expansion (SCPFX)SOCAR Midstream Operations LLC2024
TRA-F-51Trans Adriatic PipelineTrans Adriatic Pipeline AG2020
TRA-F-941Metering and Regulating station at Nea MessimvriaDESFA S.A.2020
TRA-N-971Compressor station at Nea MessimvriaDESFA S.A.2023
TRA-F-1193TAP interconnectionSnam Rete Gas S.p.A.2020
TRA-A-330EastMed PipelineNatural Gas Submarine Interconnector Greece-Italy Poseidon S.A.2025
TRA-N-1091Metering and Regulating station at MegalopoliDESFA S.A.2025
TRA-A-10Poseidon PipelineNatural Gas Submarine Interconnector Greece-Italy Poseidon S.A.2022
TRA-N-7Development for new import from the South (Adriatica Line)Snam Rete Gas S.p.A.2026
TRA-N-1195Matagiola - Massafra pipelineSnam Rete Gas S.p.A.2026
LNG-A-1146Cyprus Gas2EUMinistry of Energy, Commerce and Industry (MECI)2022
TRA-A-342Enhancement of Latvia-Lithuania interconnection (Lithuania's part)AB Amber Grid2023
TRA-A-382Enhancement of Latvia-Lithuania interconnection (Latvian part)JSC "Conexus Baltic Grid"2023
UGS-F-374Enhancement of Incukalns UGSJSC "Conexus Baltic Grid"2019
TRA-F-780Baltic Pipe project – onshore section in DenmarkEnerginet2022
TRA-A-271Poland - Denmark interconnection (Baltic Pipe) - offshore sectionGAZ-SYSTEM S.A.2022
TRA-A-1173Poland - Denmark interconnection (Baltic Pipe) - onshore section in PolandGAZ-SYSTEM S.A.2022
TRA-F-212Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania (GIPL) - PL sectionGAZ-SYSTEM S.A.2021
TRA-F-341Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania (GIPL) (Lithuania's section)AB Amber Grid2021

Table 2.1: Updated list of all projects included in the 4th PCI list.

For more details on the different Infrastructure levels and the related projects, please consult the TYNDP 2020 Infrastructure Report.