Security of supply needs are assessed by measuring the ability of the European gas system to ensure the continuity of gas supply to all countries under various stress conditions.
This section assesses the resilience of the European gas system to cope with various stressful events:
- Climatic stress
- Supply route disruptions
- Infrastructure disruptions
The resilience of the gas system is measured by calculating the Remaining Flexibility (RF indicator) of the system when coping with the various stressful events and, be it the case, the level of demand curtailment (CR indicator: Curtailment rate) to which the EU is exposed. Those indicators are calculated at country/balancing zone level over the whole-time horizon of the TYNDP assessment.
Remaining flexibility measures the resilience of a Zone as the additional share of demand each country can cover before no longer being able to fulfil its demand without creating new demand curtailment in other Zones. The remaining flexibility is expressed as a percentage in the range 0 to 15 % and > 15 %.
Demand curtailment is the value of the unsatisfied demand. The curtailment rate is the ratio between demand curtailment and demand. The curtailment rate is expressed as a percentage in the range 5 to 15 %, 15 to 30 %, 30 to 50 % and > 50 %. Additionally, curtailment rate in the range 0 to 5 % is interpreted as 0 % remaining flexibility as a result of model allocation.
Demand elasticity
When assessing the impact of a climatic stress on the gas infrastructure, the demand is considered static and is not responding to the possibility of gas supply deficit or gas price signals. This assumption is necessary to perform a consistent assessment across the different years and the different scenarios of the TYNDP.
Indeed, as observed in past events, a high demand event, especially if combined with a tight supply or infrastructure situation may trigger a demand reaction to the increase of prices, hence resulting in a reduction of the demand. However, such demand elasticity is subject to various assumptions that differs from one country to the other, and that ENTSOG cannot access.
Additionally, in order to be consistent and transparent, the level of exposure to demand curtailment is always presented in percentage of the demand assuming no demand reaction to the different stressful events.
Infrastructure levels
The assessment shows how the EU gas system evolves from an Existing infrastructure level to a Low, Advanced and PCI infrastructure level:
- The Existing infrastructure level is the basis for identification of priority areas facing an investment gap. It includes existing infrastructure as of 1st January 2019 and all projects submitted to TYNDP 2020 having made their Final Investment Decision (FID) and expected to be commissioned not later than 31st December 2019.
- The Low infrastructure level consists of the Existing infrastructure level complemented with all projects having taken the FID during the TYNDP 2020 project collection. Sixty-three FID projects have been submitted for this TYNDP edition.
- The Advanced infrastructure level is assessed to determine the further impact of the projects having an advanced status. The Advanced status is applied to all projects that, based on the information submitted, have commissioning year expected at the latest by 31st December of the year of the TYNDP project data collection (i. e. 2019) + 6 years (i. e. 2025) and: whose permitting phase has started ahead of the TYNDP project data collection, or FEED has started, or the project has been selected for receiving CEF2016–2020 grants for FEED ahead of the TYNDP project data collection. Sixty-six projects with advanced status have been submitted for this TYNDP edition.
- The PCI infrastructure level shows the benefits of the 4th PCI list projects, independently from their advancement status. There are 62 relevant projects for this infrastructure level. Below the updated list of all projects included in the 4th PCI list.
| Code | Project name | Promoter | Commissioning year |
|---|---|---|---|
| LNG-A-30 | Shannon LNG Terminal and Connecting Pipeline | Shannon LNG Ltd | 2022 |
| TRA-A-31 | Melita TransGas Pipeline | Melita TransGas Co. Ltd | 2024 |
| TRA-A-429 | Adaptation L- gas - H-gas | GRTgaz and Storengy | 2025 |
| TRA-F-500 | L/H Conversion Belgium | Fluxys Belgium | 2026 |
| TRA-F-275 | Poland - Slovakia Gas Interconnection (PL section) | GAZ-SYSTEM S.A. | 2021 |
| TRA-F-190 | Poland - Slovakia interconnection | Eustream,a.s. (a joint-stock company) | 2021 |
| TRA-N-245 | North - South Gas Corridor in Eastern Poland | GAZ-SYSTEM S.A. | 2029 |
| TRA-N-636 | Development of Transmission Capacity at Slovak-Hungarian interconnector | Magyar Gáz Tranzit Zrt. | 2022 |
| TRA-N-524 | Enhancement of Transmission Capacity of Slovak-Hungarian interconnector | Magyar Gáz Tranzit Zrt. | 2022 |
| TRA-N-1235 | Firm transmission capacity increase at the IP Veľké Zlievce | Eustream,a.s. | 2022 |
| LNG-F-82 | LNG terminal Krk (first phase) | LNG Hrvatska d.o.o. | 2020 |
| TRA-F-90 | LNG evacuation pipeline Omišalj - Zlobin (Croatia) | Plinacro Ltd | 2020 |
| TRA-F-334 | Compressor station 1 at the Croatian gas transmission system | Plinacro Ltd | 2019 |
| TRA-F-378 | Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB Project) | ICGB a.d. | 2020 |
| TRA-N-128 | Compressor Station Kipi | DESFA S.A. | 2024 |
| TRA-F-298 | Balkan Gas Hub – Modernization and rehabilitation of the Bulgarian GTS | Bulgartransgaz EAD | 2022 |
| TRA-N-137 | Balkan Gas Hub – Interconnection Bulgaria – Serbia | Bulgartransgaz EAD | 2022 |
| LNG-A-62 | LNG terminal in northern Greece / Alexandroupolis – LNG Section | Gastrade S.A. | 2022 |
| LNG-A-63 | LNG terminal in northern Greece / Alexandroupolis – Pipeline Section | Gastrade S.A. | 2022 |
| TRA-N-137 | Balkan Gas Hub – Interconnection Bulgaria - Serbia | DESFA S.A. | 2022 |
| UGS-A-138 | Balkan Gas Hub - UGS Chiren Expansion | Bulgartransgaz EAD | 2025 |
| UGS-N-385 | South Kavala Underground Gas Storage facility | Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund | 2023 |
| UGS-A-233 | Depomures | Engie Romania SA | 2021 |
| UGS-N-371 | Sarmasel undeground gas storage in Romania | SNGN ROMGAZ SA - FILIALA DE INMAGAZINARE GAZE NATURALE DEPOGAZ PLOIESTI SRL | 2024 |
| TRA-N-325 | Slovenian-Hungarian interconnector | FGSZ Ltd. | 2023 |
| TRA-N-112 | R15/1 Pince - Lendava - Kidričevo | Plinovodi d.o.o. | 2023 |
| TRA-N-92 | CS Ajdovščina, 1st phase of upgrade | Plinovodi d.o.o. | 2025 |
| TRA-N-299 | M3/1 Šempeter - Vodice | Plinovodi d.o.o. | 2026 |
| TRA-N-1227 | Gorizia plant upgrade | Snam Rete Gas S.p.A. | 2026 |
| TRA-F-358 | Development on the Romanian territory of the NTS (BG–RO-HU-AT)-Phase I | SNTGN Transgaz S.A. | 2020 |
| TRA-A-123 | Városföld CS | FGSZ Ltd. | 2022 |
| TRA-A-1322 | Development on the Romanian territory of the NTS (BG–RO-HU-AT)-Phase II | SNTGN Transgaz SA | 2022 |
| TRA-A-362 | Development on the Romanian territory of the Southern Transmission Corridor | SNTGN Transgaz SA | 2021 |
| TRA-A-377 | Romanian-Hungarian reverse flow Hungarian section 2nd stage | FGSZ Ltd. | 2022 |
| TRA-A-86 | Interconnection Croatia/Slovenia (Lučko - Zabok - Jezerišće - Sotla) | Plinacro Ltd | 2021 |
| TRA-N-94 | CS Kidričevo, 2nd phase of upgrade | Plinovodi d.o.o. | 2023 |
| TRA-N-1057 | Compressor stations 2 and 3 at the Croatian gas tranmission system | Plinacro Ltd | 2029 |
| TRA-N-361 | GCA 2015/08: Entry/Exit Murfeld | GAS CONNECT AUSTRIA GmbH | 2023 |
| TRA-N-389 | Upgrade of Murfeld/Ceršak interconnection (M1/3 Interconnection Ceršak) | Plinovodi d.o.o. | 2023 |
| TRA-N-390 | Upgrade of Rogatec interconnection (M1A/1 Interconnection Rogatec) | Plinovodi d.o.o. | 2021 |
| LNG-N-947 | FSRU Polish Baltic Sea Coast | GAZ-SYSTEM S.A. | 2025 |
| TRA-A-339 | Trans-Caspian | W-Stream Caspian Pipeline Company OU | 2022 |
| TRA-N-1138 | South Caucasus Pipeline Future Expansion (SCPFX) | SOCAR Midstream Operations LLC | 2024 |
| TRA-F-51 | Trans Adriatic Pipeline | Trans Adriatic Pipeline AG | 2020 |
| TRA-F-941 | Metering and Regulating station at Nea Messimvria | DESFA S.A. | 2020 |
| TRA-N-971 | Compressor station at Nea Messimvria | DESFA S.A. | 2023 |
| TRA-F-1193 | TAP interconnection | Snam Rete Gas S.p.A. | 2020 |
| TRA-A-330 | EastMed Pipeline | Natural Gas Submarine Interconnector Greece-Italy Poseidon S.A. | 2025 |
| TRA-N-1091 | Metering and Regulating station at Megalopoli | DESFA S.A. | 2025 |
| TRA-A-10 | Poseidon Pipeline | Natural Gas Submarine Interconnector Greece-Italy Poseidon S.A. | 2022 |
| TRA-N-7 | Development for new import from the South (Adriatica Line) | Snam Rete Gas S.p.A. | 2026 |
| TRA-N-1195 | Matagiola - Massafra pipeline | Snam Rete Gas S.p.A. | 2026 |
| LNG-A-1146 | Cyprus Gas2EU | Ministry of Energy, Commerce and Industry (MECI) | 2022 |
| TRA-A-342 | Enhancement of Latvia-Lithuania interconnection (Lithuania's part) | AB Amber Grid | 2023 |
| TRA-A-382 | Enhancement of Latvia-Lithuania interconnection (Latvian part) | JSC "Conexus Baltic Grid" | 2023 |
| UGS-F-374 | Enhancement of Incukalns UGS | JSC "Conexus Baltic Grid" | 2019 |
| TRA-F-780 | Baltic Pipe project – onshore section in Denmark | Energinet | 2022 |
| TRA-A-271 | Poland - Denmark interconnection (Baltic Pipe) - offshore section | GAZ-SYSTEM S.A. | 2022 |
| TRA-A-1173 | Poland - Denmark interconnection (Baltic Pipe) - onshore section in Poland | GAZ-SYSTEM S.A. | 2022 |
| TRA-F-212 | Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania (GIPL) - PL section | GAZ-SYSTEM S.A. | 2021 |
| TRA-F-341 | Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania (GIPL) (Lithuania's section) | AB Amber Grid | 2021 |
Table 4.1: Updated list of all projects included in the 4th PCI list.
For more details on the different Infrastructure levels and the related projects, please consult the TYNDP 2020 Infrastructure Report.