The LNG and Interconnection Capacity Diversification (LICD) does not consider the capacities from import route and transit route but only the LNG terminals capacities and the interconnections capacities between European Countries.
Each border entry capacity is capped by the country average day demand, to avoid results for a small demand country being distorted by a big transit capacity. The indicator, which is therefore scenario dependent, shows the diversification from the perspective of market integration. It measures the diversification of paths that gas can flow through to reach a market area.
For the concerned countries, the maritime border is considered as one border and therefore, all LNG capacities are aggregated and capped by the average demand of the country. Furthermore, the geographical location influences the LICD indicator since a country located at the border of the EU may be able to be interconnected with only one or two countries, including the maritime border. This explains why generally, the countries located in the corners of the EU like the Iberian Peninsula, South-Eastern Europe, the Baltics and Ireland show a higher LICD index than countries more centrally located with many borders, even if those countries have significant capacities (such as LNG capacities in Spain).
The LICD is an HHI indicator and ranges from 0 to 10,000. The lower the value, the better the diversification is. Where a country would have two borders the LICD cannot be lower than 5,000, and for a country having three borders the LICD cannot be lower than 3,333. See Annex D for more detailed information about the indicator’s formula.
Results are given by market zone. Thus, Finland, Estonia and Latvia are grouped into a single zone and the results are therefore identical for these three countries. Also, Denmark and Sweden are grouped in one zone and therefore the results are identical for these two countries.
Table 4.1 gives the number of interconnections with neighbouring countries (LNG here is considering as a country) with which a specific country as at least an entry capacity, per country and infrastructure level for the year 2040. The number of interconnections is similar for the all the years (2025, 2030 and 2040). However, Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria increase their number of interconnections between 2025 and 2030 in Advanced infrastructure level and Greece increases its number of interconnections between 2025 and 2030 in PCI infrastructure level.
| Country | Existing | Low | Advanced | PCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Belgium | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bulgaria | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Croatia | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Czechia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Denmark | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Estonia | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Finland | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| France | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Germany | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| Greece | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Hungary | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Ireland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Italy | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Country | Existing | Low | Advanced | PCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Lithuania | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Luxembourg | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Netherlands | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Poland | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Portugal | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Romania | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Serbia | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Slovakia | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Slovenia | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Spain | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Sweden | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| United Kingdom | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Table 5.1: Number of borders interconnected to neighbouring countries per country and infrastructure level for the year 2040.
5.3.1 Existing infrastructure level
The indicator shows a low diversification for the South Eastern European Countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina) with only one interconnection with LNG or neighbouring countries. The indicator shows a low diversification for Finland, Estonia and Latvia which are now grouped on a single market and have only one interconnection with Lithuania. On the West side, Ireland has only one interconnection with United Kingdom. The results are similar for all the scenarios.
Figure 5.34: LNG and Interconnection Capacity Diversification – Existing infrastructure level.
5.3.2 Low infrastructure level
The situation is improving for some South Eastern countries:
- Greece with new interconnection with Italy (Trans Adriatic Pipeline),
- Bulgaria with an increase capacity from Romania and a new interconnection with Serbia,
- Croatia with new Krk LNG Terminal,
- Hungary with increase capacities from Romania and Croatia,
- Serbia with increase capacity from Hungary and new interconnection with Bulgaria.
- Slovakia improves his diversification with a new interconnection with Poland.
- Poland improve his diversification with LNG terminal project in Świnoujście, new interconnection with Slovakia, and Lithuania (GIPL).
- Lithuania improve his diversification with new interconnection with Poland.
Figure 5.35: LNG and Interconnection Capacity Diversification – Existing and Low infrastructure levels.
5.3.3 Advanced infrastructure level
2025
Most of the South Eastern, North and Eastern countries improve their diversification:
- Austria with the new interconnection with Czech Republic,
- Croatia with the new interconnection with Serbia,
- Denmark and Sweden with the new interconnection with Poland,
- Germany with new LNG terminal and increase capacity with Netherlands,
- Estonia, Finland, Latvia with increase capacity from Lithuania and a new terminal,
- Czech Republic with the 2 new interconnections with Poland and Austria,
- Italy with the new interconnections with Greece and Malta,
- Poland with the new interconnections with Denmark and Czech Republic,
- Romania with new interconnection with Serbia and increase capacity with Hungary,
- Serbia with new interconnections with Romania and Croatia.
North Macedonia (with a value equal to 10,000) with a new interconnection with Greece is now taken into account in the calculations (the interconnection with Bulgar-Transgas Pipeline is considered as a source of supply and was not taken into account in the LICD calculation). See Figure 5.36.
Figure 5.36: LNG and Interconnection Capacity Diversification – 2025 – Low and Advanced infrastructure levels.
2030
Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria with the new interconnection Eastring improve their diversification significantly from 2030. See Figure 5.37.
Figure 5.37: LNG and Interconnection Capacity Diversification – 2030 – Low and Advanced infrastructure levels.
5.3.4 PCI infrastructure level
2025
Most of the South Eastern, North and Eastern countries improve their diversification:
- Austria with the new interconnection with Slovenia,
- Bulgaria with increase capacity with Serbia,
- Hungary with increase capacity with Romania,
- Denmark and Sweden with the new interconnection with Poland,
- Italy with the new interconnections with Greece and Malta,
- Poland with the new interconnections with Denmark and Czech Republic,
- Romania with increase capacity with Hungary,
- Serbia with new interconnections with Bulgaria,
- Slovenia with the new interconnection with Hungary.
See Figure 5.38.
Figure 5.38: LNG and Interconnection Capacity Diversification – 2025 – Low and PCI infrastructure levels.
2030
Greece improve its diversification with new interconnection with Cyprus (commissioning year in 2025). See Figure 5.39.
Figure 5.39: LNG and Interconnection Capacity Diversification – 2030 – Low and PCI infrastructure levels.