Analysing the level of utilisation and contractual and physical congestion of interconnection points, as an essential parameter to be taken into account when analysing the need for additional gas infrastructure, in order to avoid the risk of stranded or inefficient investments.
From TYNDP 2018, ENTSOG already considers long-term capacity booking contracts. These contracts, if signed before the time-horizon considered for the assessment, basically represent a given for the user, and therefore sunk cost that are not expected to impact on its short-term use of the capacity. Their inclusion, and until their expiration, allows to take into account in the TYNDP and infrastructure gaps identification the expected minimum level of utilisation of existing infrastructures. In the long-term, however, with these contracts expiring, gas could flow through any possible route.
Consideration of the long-term capacity booking contracts and minimum supply potentials was continued for TYNDP 2020, to reproduce the most realistic use of the infrastructure.
With regards to long-term supply contracts, those are already included, at European level, in the “minimum” defined for each supply source potential. The different supply sources minimums are based on public available literature, exchanges between ENTSOG and the main suppliers as well as on the stakeholder’s feedback received during dedicated workshops.
Consideration of physical congestion is already embedded in the way the many TYNDP 2020 indicators are calculated: a physical bottleneck will identify an infrastructure need. Flows resulting from ENTSOG simulations are one of the possible solutions that the simulation tool might provide. The level of utilisation of existing infrastructure and submitted projects might differ from one simulation to another, depending on the underlying assumptions. To assess situations where existing infrastructure is prioritised, ENTSOG runs sensitivity on the value of the tariffs assumed for the projects. In the same way, the sustainability indicator computed for TYNDP 2020 considers, in the allocation of benefits to projects, that existing infrastructure are always prioritised.
Please consult Annex D.1 for more information.