The significant development of renewable gases production capacities allows the EU to reach similar levels of indigenous production to 2020, renewables fully compensating for the decline of Natural Gas production. Therefore, the situation remains stable over time and Marginal Price convergence is very similar to 2025. With some limitations West -> East.
In 2040, the development of renewables gases reaches significant volumes (3,800 GWh/d), more than compensating for the sharp decline of the natural gas production. Furthermore, the development of electrification and energy efficiency reduces the overall gas demand bringing more flexibility into the gas system.
Marginal Prices further converge and most of the differences observed between countries reflect the transmission tariffs.
The same infrastructure limitations remain between Western and Central-Eastern Europe.
North-Eastern EuropeThe development of renewable gases allows the Baltic states and Finland to have their Marginal Prices independent from Russia.
Despite the significant increase of the national production, including renewable gases; the assessment shows a significant difference between the Marginal Price in Poland and its neighbouring countries. Infrastructure shows some limitations between Poland and its neighbouring countries not accommodating with the significant increase of the Polish demand, due to the transition away from coal in power and heating, industrial and tertiary sectors.
The same infrastructure limitations between Greece and Bulgaria are observed.