5.4Commercial Supply Access (CSA) and Supply Source Diversification index (SSDi)

The access to different supply sources is a prerequisite for competition. The ability to have access to different supplies, as well as the volumes of these supplies, is taken into account for the identification of supply diversification needs.
The Commercial Supply Access indicator (CSA) measures the number of supply sources (including national production as a source) an area can ­commercially access.

This commercial supply diversification ability is ­calculated from a market perspective, as the ability of each area to benefit from a decrease in the price of the considered supply source (such ability does not necessarily mean that the area has a physical access to the source – example presented on ­Figure 5.40).

The ability of an area to access a given source is measured through the Supply Source Diversification indicator (SSDi). The SSDi is expressed as a percentage in the range 0 to 100 %, with e. g. 30 % corresponding to the supply cost of the area being 30 % responsive to a decrease in price of source S. The higher the SSDi, the better the access to source S from a price perspective. A country has been ­considered as having a significant access to a ­supply source when the SSDi to this source is ­higher than 20 %, which means that a decrease in the price of this supply source would impact at least 20 % of the country supply bill. Alternatively, an SSDi of 0 % means the country gets no benefit from a low price of the concerned source.

Figure 5.40: Example: Hungary can benefit from a ­decrease in the price of the LNG even if country has no direct ­physical connection to LNG terminal

Of course, the indicated reference threshold must be read considering the demand of each country. For the larger gas markets, a lower threshold could be relevant to indicate diversification provided by some supply sources – example presented on ­Figure 5.41.

In the following, all results are presented using a 20 % threshold in continuity with the previous ­TYNDP and PCI selection processes.

General observation is whenever one country is having high score of specific SSDi comparing to countries in same area, it means that there is an ­infrastructure limitation preventing sharing benefit of cheap gas from this specific source. Along with next levels of infrastructure in the Europe, countries are more able to share cheap gas between ­themselves.

Figure 5.41: Example: SSDi in Italy and Hungary are at the same level but 25 % of demand in Italy in this scenario and year is more than 5 time bigger than in Hungary.

5.4.1 Existing Infrastructure Level

SSDi results for Existing infrastructure level across the Europe are influenced only by specific scenario ­assumption such as demand and national production. Analysing specific scenarios, there is possibility to assess evolution of the indicator values. Infrastructure remains unchanged in all years.

In Existing infrastructure level most of the countries are not passing 20 % threshold (and be counted in CSA) for national production. In the same time, SSDi result for LNG in most of the countries oscillates around 20 % threshold and show below or above values depending on the combination of demand and NP values for countries in Europe. Those results are having the most significant influence on CSA results ­(presented on Figure 5.42).

SAR Figure 4-Legende CSA 42ff

Figure 5.42: CSA – Existing infrastructure level

2020 – 2025

Most countries in the centre of the EU access 3 ­supply sources or more (mainly LNG, Norway and Russia), however peripheral EU regions of ­Central-East, the Baltics and the Iberian Peninsula access mainly 2 sources.

  • Iberian Peninsula has access mainly to LNG and Algerian supply,
  • The Baltic states and Finland to LNG and ­Russian Supply,
  • CEE and South (Croatia, Hungary, Romania) access mainly the Russian and Norwegian ­supply.
National Trends

In 2030, despite the decreasing demand in the overall gas demand indicated in the NECPs, the ­coincident decline of conventional natural gas production and the very limited uptake of indigenous renewables shows a stabilisation of the situation. Some changes occur in Poland better accessing ­indigenous EU gas production and in Czech ­Republic and Slovakia with limited access to LNG.

In 2040, further decline in the demand changes the situation for the CEE region where most countries are having limited access to the LNG supply just ­below the selected threshold. The Baltic states and Finland as well as the Iberian Peninsula see no ­improvement in the National Trends scenario.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

North-Eastern Europe
The development of indigenous production of ­renewable gas in the EU, and in particular in the ­region, allows the Baltic states and Finland to ­diversify their commercial access up to 3 sources in 2040 for both scenarios (as of 2030 for Distributed Energy), while supporting an increasing gas demand mainly ­driven by the transport and power sectors.

Central-Eastern Europe
In 2030, compared to National Trends, Slovakia and Hungary keep on having a commercial access to the LNG supply, whereas Poland sees its access to LNG more limited (from 23 % in 2025 to 14 % in 2040).

Iberian Peninsula
In 2030, the situation remains similar for all ­scenarios with a commercial access limited to LNG and Algerian supply.

In 2040, the combination of a decreasing gas ­demand and penetration of indigenous renewable and decarbonised gases allows the region to ­commercially access the Norwegian supplies in Global Ambition 2040. In Distributed Energy 2040, the more significant uptake of indigenous ­renewable and decarbonised gases ­production brings a ­significant access to national production.

Elsewhere in the EU, in Global Ambition, the ­increasing penetration of indigenous renewable and decarbonised gases does not compensate the overall decrease in conventional national ­production and therefore, the higher demand in Global ­Ambition translates into more restricted benefits from a low price of the different supplies: most of central Europe access only ­Norwegian and Russian supplies whereas western Europe additionally ­access LNG and to some ­extent, Algerian supply.

In Distributed Energy, the decreasing demand ­combined with higher penetration of new ­indigenous gas production ­allow all European ­countries to access 3 sources or more in 2030 and 4 sources in 2040, all including the new indigenous production. Only Romania is slightly below ­threshold in case of LNG supply source.

SSDi NP
Only few countries are passing 20 % threshold in SSDi – NP (beside of Distributed Energy 2040 where all countries are scoring for CSA mostly due to the significant penetration of renewable and ­decarbonised gas production)). Only Ireland and Romania are passing 20 % in all years and ­scenarios. Bulgaria, Greece and North Macedonia are passing the 20 % ­threshold in all scenarios and years except Best Estimate 2020. In other countries in some specific years and ­scenarios the threshold is passed (see detailed SSDi charts).

SSDi NOThe Norwegian supply has a significant maximum potential and is connected to countries which are well connected to the European market. This ­combination allows a large number of EU countries to benefit from a decrease in the Norwegian gas price.

Across all scenarios, the assessment confirms that most of the European countries are able to benefit from decrease in price of Norway gas besides ­Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania and Spain. In Global Ambition 2040 Spain and Portugal are ­passing threshold as well.

SSDi LNG
Most of the countries can benefit in case of ­decrease in the LNG price, allowing them to pass 20 %. In Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, ­Slovenia and Sweden situation is changing across scenarios and years and it can be tracked on ­detailed SSDi charts below. Most of the changes are in Global Ambition and National Trends scenarios.

SSDi RU
All countries, with the exception of Portugal and Spain are passing the 20 % threshold.

SSDi DZ
Over Europe only Italy, Portugal and Spain are ­passing 20 % threshold in all scenarios. This ­situation is mainly due to the relative limited ­volumes imported from Algeria via pipelines ­compared to the European demand. Therefore, the Algerian supply cannot influence to a significant ­extent the SSDi indicator of many countries.

SSDi CA (Caspian)
In this infrastructure level, no country is passing 20 % threshold. Like for the Algerian supply, this ­situation is explained by the limited volumes that can be imported for the Caspian region with the ­existing capacities compared to the EU demand. Therefore, a decrease in price of the Caspian supply can influence the cost of gas supply for some ­countries. However, no country can show a ­significant impact of the ­Capsian supply on its SSDi indicator.

Detailed results for SSDi over the Europe in Existing Intrastructure level.

Figure 5.43: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – Best Estimate 2020

Figure 5.44: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – Coal Before Gas 2025

Figure 5.45: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – Gas Before Coal 2025

Figure 5.46: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – National Trends 2030

Figure 5.47: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – National Trends 2040

Figure 5.48: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – Distributed Energy 2030

Figure 5.49: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – Distributed Energy 2040

Figure 5.50: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – Global Ambition 2030

Figure 5.51: SSDi – Existing infrastructure level – Global Ambition 2040

5.4.2 Low Infrastructure Level

FID projects composing the low infrastructure level improve the Commercial Supply Access indicator for most countries. New investments are increasing the capability of the Member States to benefit more from a decrease in the price of the different supply sources. Apart from transmission infrastructure investments, this infrastructure level provides additional LNG import capacity.

Note: It is important to remember that new infrastructure can potentially allow a country to share ­additional cheap gas. This would result in affecting SSDi results also by lowering it in a country which was previously showing a relatively high score compared to its neighbouring countries. In some of the cases it might even result in a drop below 20 % threshold. However, it still means that convergence in specific region improves and allows to share cheap source of gas in higher volumes, benefitting to the overall EU social-economic welfare.

SSDi value might change even if CSA remains the same. Changes in SSDi values can be observed in detailed SSDi charts.

Results

2025

The impact of the FID projects on the CSA is visible as of 2025 with most countries accessing 3 supply sources in both scenarios in Baltic states and ­Finland (having access to Norwegian gas), and ­Balkan region improving access to national production in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and ­Hungary. Indigenous gas produced in the region, thanks to FID projects, has a better ­distribution which reduce its share in Bulgaria and Greece going below threshold.

National Trends

2030: With a decreasing European demand and a rather limited development of indigenous ­renewable gases, the impact of the FID projects keeps on being visible in 2030 with most of the EU being able to benefit from a decrease in price of 3 or more supply sources. The Iberian Peninsula is the only region ­accessing 2 supply sources (LNG and Algeria) and Greece, Bulgaria and North Macedonia (LNG and Russian gas).

2040: the gas demand decreases, partially ­compensated by the penetration of gas in the ­transport. However, the limited development of ­indigenous renewable gases does not compensate for the decline of the conventional national ­production, especially in the Balkan region. ­Therefore, in 2040, the assessment shows that the situation in term of Market Integration in South-Eastern Europe deteriorates with Romania, Bulgaria and Greece accessing only 2 supply ­sources.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Most significant improvements from CSA ­perspective can be observed in Baltic State Region and South – Central Europe. New infrastructure is ­allowing to access more LNG and NO gas allowing to reach 20 % threshold.

According to assumptions, results for Best ­Estimate 2020 are not changing together with infrastructure level and map (contoured with dotted line) is ­provided for comparison purpose only. See Figure 5.52.

SAR Figure 4-Legende CSA 42ff

Figure 5.52: CSA – Low infrastructure level

SSDi NP
Comparing with Existing infrastructure level, Low infrastructure level is bringing investments allowing to share more gas from national production across the Europe. Considering the previous infra ­configuration some of the countries were having limited possibilities to share gas from national ­production, but together with additional infrastructure they can share more, even if the gas from ­national production was having origins in different, well connected neighbour. That is why in specific scenarios and years, in countries like Bulgaria, ­Estonia, Finland, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and North Macedonia result for SSDi NP is ­dropping below 20 % in certain years. Thanks to ­infrastructure investments situation improves in Bosnia and Herzegovina, ­Croatia, Denmark, ­Hungary, Serbia and Sweden.

SSDi NO
FID projects bring significant improvement, ­allowing to cross 20 % threshold in this SSDi. Improvement in various years and scenarios can be observed in Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia and Romania. Most vital in this case seems to be improvement in Baltic states ­region connecting them to rest of the Europe and investments in South East Europe region.

SSDi LNG
SSDi LNG is one of the indicators being ­significantly improved across Europe. Even if the value is not changing drastically (in some of the cases ­improvement about 2 or 3 percentiles) it allows some countries to score above the 20 % threshold. In Low infrastructure level all countries across the EU (Beside Romania in Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal 2025) can benefit from a decreasing price of the LNG supply. That Improvement was ­observed in Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, ­Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, ­Germany, Hungary, North Macedonia, Poland, ­Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, ­Sweden.

SSDi RU
No change comparing with Existing infrastructure level.

SSDi DZ
No change comparing with Existing infrastructure level.

SSDi CA (Caspian)
No change comparing with Existing infrastructure level.

Detailed results for SSDi over the Europe in LOW ­Infrastructure level

Figure 5.53: SSDi – Low infrastructure level – Coal Before Gas 2025

Figure 5.54: SSDi – Low infrastructure level – Gas Before Coal 2025

Figure 5.55: SSDi – Low infrastructure level – National Trends 2030

SAR Figure 4-056

Figure 5.56: SSDi – Low infrastructure level – National Trends 2040

Figure 5.57: SSDi – Low infrastructure level – Distributed Energy 2030

Figure 5.58: SSDi – Low infrastructure level – Distributed Energy 2040

Figure 5.59: SSDi – Low infrastructure level – Global Ambition 2030

Figure 5.60: SSDi – Low infrastructure level – Global Ambition 2040

5.4.3 Advanced Infrastructure Level

Advanced projects are providing additional capacities between EU Countries compared to Low, including additional LNG capacities. During results evaluation process situation in Southern Europe and Baltic states improves further. In Global Ambition 2040 all countries in Europe beside North Macedonia are having at least 4 points in CSA indicator. Together with additional infrastructure level, results for Cyprus and Malta are provided.

2025

The impact of the advanced but not FID projects in comparison to FID projects alone on the CSA is ­visible, especially through improvement in East-South Europe. As of 2025 entire region access to 4 supply sources in both scenarios. This is achieved mainly through better access to national ­production and Norwegian gas. Denmark and Sweden through new ­infrastructure are in position to share national produced gas, going below 20 % threshold, loosing score for CSA.

National Trends

2030: Advanced projects improves situation in South East Europe allows to benefit from a ­decrease in price of 4 supply sources.

2040: limited development of indigenous ­renewable gases does not fully compensate for the decline of the conventional national production, ­especially in the Balkan region. Beside that fact, the assessment shows that the situation in term of Market Integration in Europe is significantly improved and countries are able to benefit from 3 or more supply sources when gas prices drops. Only Iberian Peninsula remains with access to two.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Biggest improvements from CSA perspective can be observed in Baltic State Region and South – Central Europe. New infrastructure is allowing to access more LNG and NO gas allowing to reach 20 % threshold. In 2040 thanks to deep level of ­infrastructure development being implemented, relatively low demand and higher penetration of ­renewable gas sources, all the Europe can access 4 or 5 sources. Iberian Peninsula and North ­Macedonia remains with 3. See Figure 5.61.

SAR Figure 4-Legende CSA 42ff

Figure 5.61: CSA– Advanced infrastructure level

SSDi NP
Same as in case of Low infrastructure level, ­Advanced is bringing investments allowing to share more gas from national production across the ­Europe. It can be again observed that some of the countries were having limited possibilities to share gas from national production, but together with ­additional infrastructure they can share more, even if the gas from national production was having ­origins in different, well connected neighbour. That is why, comparing situation to Low, in specific ­scenarios and years, countries like Denmark and Sweden result for SSDi NP is dropping below 20 %.

Due to infrastructure improvements in Distributed Energy and Global Ambition 2040 all countries in EU are passing 20 % for this indicator. Beside of that improvement, in specific scenario and year combination situation improves in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, North Macedonia and Serbia.

SSDi NO
Compering with Low infrastructure level, in case of this indicator a significant improvement can be ­observed. Most of the European countries are crossing 20 % threshold. Only in Portugal and Spain there is no change, Cyprus is not crossing threshold in few scenario and year combination.

SSDi LNG
In Advanced infrastructure level all countries in all scenarios and years are matching 20 % criterion to score for CSA. Only improvement in the meaning of passing 20 % was observed in Romania in 2025 Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal.

SSDi RU
No change comparing with Low infrastructure ­level in most of the countries. Only Cyprus, in both 2025 scenarios is not able to pass 20 % threshold but it improves further on.

SSDi DZ
No change comparing with Low infrastructure ­level in most of the countries. Only Cyprus, in both 2025 scenarios is not able to pass 20 % threshold but it improves further on. Malta in all scenarios is scoring for CSA.

SSDi CA (Caspian)
For the first time, together with Advance infrastructure level, countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, North Macedonia, Romania and Serbia are passing 20 % ­threshold and included CSA.

Detailed results for SSDi over the Europe in ADVANCED ­Infrastructure level

Figure 5.62: SSDi – Advanced infrastructure level – Coal Before Gas 2025

Figure 5.63: SSDi – Advanced infrastructure level – Gas Before Coal 2025

Figure 5.64: SSDi – Advanced infrastructure level – National Trends 2030

Figure 5.65: SSDi – Advanced infrastructure level – National Trends 2040

Figure 5.66: SSDi – Advanced infrastructure level – Distributed Energy 2030

Figure 5.67: SSDi – Advanced infrastructure level – Distributed Energy 2040

Figure 5.68: SSDi – Advanced infrastructure level – Global Ambition 2030

Figure 5.69: SSDi – Advanced infrastructure level – Global Ambition 2040

5.4.4 PCI Infrastructure Level

PCI infrastructure level including FID and PCI labeled projects changes situation over the Europe. Those projects are providing additional capacities between EU Countries, such as new import capacities (further expansion of Southern Gas Corridor) and additional LNG capacities in ­Poland, Croatia, Greece and Cyprus.

2025

The impact of the PCI projects in comparison to FID projects alone on the CSA is visible, especially through improvement in East-South Europe. As of 2025 all European countries are having access to at least 3 supply sources in both scenarios. Denmark and Sweden through new infrastructure are in ­position to share national produced gas, going ­below 20 % threshold, loosing score for CSA. ­

Romania and Greece through new infrastructure are in position to increase the number of possible cheap supply sources to 4. LNG and Norwegian gas in case of Romania and Norwegian and Caspian gas in case of Greece. Iberian Peninsula ­remains with access to two sources: Algeria and LNG.

National Trends

2030: Advanced projects improve situation in South East Europe allows to benefit from a ­decrease in price of 4 supply sources (5 in case of Greece). Relatively low conventional national production over the Europe does not allow to pass the ­threshold, but projects grouped in this ­infrastructure level allows to equally share the similar level of ­benefit across the Europe (SSDi approx. 14 – 15 %), when only Ireland is an exception (45 %).

2040: limited development of indigenous ­renewable gases does not fully compensate for the decline of the conventional national production, especially in the Balkan region. Beside that fact, the assessment shows that the situation in term of Market Integration in Europe is improved and countries are able to benefit from 3 or more supply sources when gas prices drops. Only Iberian Peninsula remains with access to two.

COP 21 scenarios

Distributed Energy and
Global Ambition

Biggest improvements from CSA perspective can be observed in Baltic state region and South – Central Europe. New infrastructure is allowing to access more LNG and Norwegian gas allowing to reach 20 % threshold. In 2040 thanks to deep level of ­infrastructure development being implemented, relatively low demand and higher penetration of ­renewable gas sources all the Europe can access 4 or 5 sources. Only Finland, Estonia and Latvia are having access to 3 sources, but this is because ­result for SSDi-NO is just below the 20 % threshold. Iberian Peninsula is benefiting from better access to renewable gas sources. See Figure 5.70.

SAR Figure 4-Legende CSA 42ff

Figure 5.70: CSA – PCI infrastructure level

SSDi NPPCI infrastructure level is bringing investments ­allowing to share more gas from national ­production across the Europe. It can be again observed that some of the countries were having limited ­possibilities to share gas from national production, but together with additional infrastructure they can share more, even if the gas from national ­production was having origins in different, well connected neighbour. That is why, comparing situation to Low, in specific scenarios and years, countries like­Denmark and Sweden result for SSPDI NP is ­dropping below 20 %. In specific situation in 2030 Global Ambition, this indicator is going below 20 % also for ­Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, North Macedonia and Serbia. In the same time, those countries are ­scoring for CSA in other specific scenario and year combination (see ­detailed SSDi charts).

Thanks to infrastructure improvements in Distributed Energy 2030 and Global Ambition 2040 all countries in EU are passing 20 % for this indicator.

SSDi NO
Compared to Low infrastructure level a significant improvement can be observed. Most of the ­European countries are crossing 20 % threshold. Only in Portugal and Spain there is almost no change (only in Global Ambition 2040), Cyprus is crossing threshold in 2030 National Trends and ­Distributed Energy 2040. In case of ­Bulgaria and North Macedonia, additional ­infrastructure causing drop of SSDi below 20 % in 2040 Global Ambition and 2040 Distributed Energy for North Macedonia.

SSDi LNG
In PCI infrastructure level all countries in all ­scenarios and years are matching 20 % criterion to score for CSA. Only improvement in the meaning of passing 20 % was observed in Romania in 2025 Coal Before Gas and Gas Before Coal.

SSDi RU
No change comparing with Low infrastructure ­level in most of the countries. Only Cyprus, in both 2025 scenarios is not able to pass 20 % threshold but it improves further on.

SSDi DZ
There is an improvement observed in Greece and North Macedonia in specific scenario and year combination. Cyprus, in both 2025 scenarios is not able to pass 20 % threshold but it improves further on. Malta in all scenarios is scoring for CSA.

SSDi CA (Caspian)
Together with PCI infrastructure level, countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Greece, North Macedonia and Serbia are passing 20 % threshold which is included in their CSA.

Detailed results for SSDi over Europe in PCI Infrastructure level

Figure 5.71: SSDi – PCI infrastructure level – Coal Before Gas 2025

Figure 5.72: SSDi – PCI infrastructure level – Gas Before Coal 2025

Figure 5.73: SSDi – PCI infrastructure level – National Trends 2030

Figure 5.74: SSDi – PCI infrastructure level – National Trends 2040

Figure 5.75: SSDi – PCI infrastructure level – Distributed Energy 2030

Figure 5.76: SSDi – PCI infrastructure level – Distributed Energy 2040

Figure 5.77: SSDi – PCI infrastructure level – Global Ambition 2030

Figure 5.78: SSDi – PCI infrastructure level – Global Ambition 2040