3.1A well developed and efficient gas market
Since TYNDP 2018, progress has been made in terms of gas infrastructure projects enabling the EU to move towards the full achievement of the internal energy market with the implementation of 10 projects.
The TYNDP assessement show, looking at the 2020 situation, that the current infrastructure already achieves many of the aims of the internal energy market with some exceptions in specific areas. To investigate the investment needs on the longer term, TYNDP looks at what the FID and advanced projects1 will already allow to deliver in terms of security of supply, market integration and competition over the 20 next years, in all scenarios.
1 the majority of them is planned to be commissioned by 2020, see Figure 29
The European gas infrastructure can minimise or mitigate the dependence on all supply sources within the next 5 years
As the EU indigenous production of gas is declining and renewable gas generation will take some time to scale up, the overall dependence of the EU on gas imports increases in all scenarios in the next 5 years and starts decreasing as of 2030. However, this dependence only concerns the Russian supply and to a more limited extent the LNG supply.
Indeed, in all scenarios and over the whole time-horizon, the existing gas infrastructure already allows for a fully effective cooperation towards LNG dependence, and in 2040, the EU shows no dependence at all on LNG. Furthermore, the assessment confirms that the EU is not dependent on any LNG specific supplier and can always find alternative supply, even to the largest LNG basin.
Regarding the Russian supply, FID and advanced projects to be commissioned in the next 5 years prove to achieve an efficient cooperation between the different Member States so that all of the EU can limit the dependence on LNG to its minimum and spread it evenly among all regions of the EU2.
2 The Iberian Peninsula, Cyprus, Malta and the British isles show no dependence at all since they do not belong to any of the Eastern supply risk groups due to their geographical locations
The gas infrastructure allows the EU to commercially access a wide variety of supply sources
Most of Europe can already commercially access 3 or more supply sources apart from regions that are located at the borders of the EU. However, with the decline of the indigenous conventional production, many countries face the risk to lose access to this supply source.
Nevertheless, the combination of the possible development of indigenous renewable sources and the commissioning of FID projects improves the situation over time, especially in both COP 21 scenarios where all countries can access more than 3 sources.
The gas infrastructure, a key asset to ensure price convergence
The gas infrastructure is key to enable an efficient and competitive gas market. Gas prices generally observed in the EU confirm the efficiency of the European gas infrastructure to ensure price convergence.
However, the assessment of the different infrastructure levels confirm that FID and advanced projects can further enhance the gas price convergence throughout Europe up to 35 % in Distributed Energy in 2030. The PCI infrastructure projects can improve the convergence of the European gas prices too, however to a lesser extent than the Advanced infrastructure projects.
3.2Energy systems integration potentials
The gas infrastructure can integrate significant volumes of intermittent renewables
The assessment confirms that the existing gas system can support the development of renewable gases and renewable electricity by integrating all the potential biomethane and renewable hydrogen as defined in the different scenarios, the necessary adaptations of the existing gas network are undertaken. The potential of the gas system combined with significant volumes of storage is perfectly adequate to cope with the intermittent renewable generation.
The gas system and its storage capacity are key to cope with the seasonality of the energy demand
On an annual basis the gas infrastructure generally offers the necessary flexibility to balance the seasonal inadequacy between the energy supply (rather stable over the year) and the energy demand (high in winter and low in summer). The assessment confirms that the existing gas system can store more than 30 % of the current and future winter demand. This is another key element for integrating very seasonal supply such as solar energy without having to curtail other forms of renewable energy generation.
In case of high demand situations under climatic stress, the role of gas storages in the gas system prove to be necessary for security of supply, since most of the gas supply delivered in peak demand situations comes from the gas storages (8,500 GWh/d to 15,500 GWh/d). In case of Dunkelflaute event, the share of the supply coming from the storages can go up to 40 % for 2 consecutive weeks, demonstrating the role of the gas infrastructure as a necessary infrastructure to support the development of intermittent renewables while ensuring security of energy supply for the EU.
Development of renewables bring flexibility on annual level but import capacities are needed to ensure security of supply in peak situations
The assessment of the gas infrastructure under Distributed Energy show that even with a significant share of indigenous renewable production, the storages need imports to be filled up in summer and additionally, imports are a key complement to storage withdrawals in winter.
Furthermore, the analysis of the supply mixes under various price configurations confirms that the gas infrastructure allows for the market to make arbitration between cheap and expensive supply source to minimise the cost of gas supply for the EU, and eventually, the consumers. Additional infrastructure also proves to be giving access to alternative supply sources increasing the security of gas supply in some countries.
The assessment of Low and Advanced infrastructure levels generally bring more flexibility to the gas system.
Resilience to extreme climatic events
The gas infrastructure is resilient to extreme climatic events in most parts of Europe
In all scenarios, the assessment shows that the existing European gas system is well developed and, in most European countries, resilient to severe climatic conditions such as a 1-in-20 peak day, a 2-week cold spell or a 2-week cold spell during a dunkelflaute event.
The gas system can therefore ensure the European consumers to be supplied with the necessary amounts of gas for the next 20 years, even in case of extremely cold temperatures and limited intermittent renewable production.
FID and Advanced projects to be commissioned in the next 5 years
almost fully mitigate the remaining gaps
While the existing infrastructure is already resilient in most part of Europe, some specific areas require the commissioning of further FID or Advanced infrastructure to fully mitigate their exposure to demand curtailment in case of a 1-in-20 peak day. Only Sweden remains exposed in Global Ambition scenario in 2030.
With FID and Advanced projects (commissioned by 2025)
The gas system and renewable gases can support the development of intermittent electricity renewable generation while ensuring a high level of security of energy supply, even during a 2-week Dunkelflaute
The assessment confirms that with the development of intermittent renewable power generation, the gas system is generally resilient but is under an increasing stress. However, biomethane production is beneficial to security of supply on an annual basis and during climatic stress due to its continuous operation. Power-to-gas technologies are beneficial for the security of gas supply on an annual basis too.
With the significant penetration of power-to-gas in the different scenarios after 2030, especially Distributed Energy, the gas supply becomes more and more variable. However, during climatic stress situations, especially during Dunkelflaute events, hydrogen from power-to-gas can be produced at its minimum, and the electricity demand requires large amounts of gas for power generation. In such extreme climatic cases for the electricity and gas sectors, the gas system, including gas storages, is key to ensure the necessary energy supply for all sectors.
Resilience to supply disruptions
The resilience of the gas infrastructure has significantly improved since TYNDP 2018 and the SoS simulation report
Most of Europe is protected from a possible risk of demand curtailment in case of any major supply route disruption during high demand situations.
However, for some supply route disruptions, infrastructure limitations keep on preventing some regions from being fully protected from a risk of demand curtailment. Nonetheless, projects submitted to the TYNDP can provide the necessary additional infrastructure to fully mitigate the situation.
Additionally, in some exposed areas, the assessment of the different scenarios show that the development of renewable gases efficiently contributes to security of supply and reduces the risk of demand curtailment.
FID and Advanced projects can achieve the resilience of the gas system to future supply route disruptions by 2025
Only Finland remains exposed to a certain extent in case of disruption of all imports to the Baltic States and Finland.
Resilience to the Single-Largest Infrastructure Disruption
The resilience of the gas infrastructure improves significantly over time with the commissioning of FID and advanced projects.
3.3Infrastructure gaps can be addressed by 2025
Almost all infrastructure gaps can be addressed in the next 5 years by projects already initiated
Since TYNDP 2018, the commissioning of a number of projects has improved the resilience of the European gas system, however some infrastructure gaps remain in certain regions under certain scenarios.
TYNDP 2020 confirms that projects having already made their final investment decision (FID) and advanced projects to be commissioned in the next 5 years address efficiently most of the infrastructure needs to reach an effective level of cooperation between the different countries and allows the gas system to:
- Reduce its dependence towards all supply sources to its minimum,
- Provide access to minimum 3 supply sources to most of Europe by 2030 and to all countries by 2040,
- Minimise/maximise the access to the different supply sources depending on their price,
- Allow for an efficient price convergence throughout the EU,
- Be resilient to all climatic events, including a 1-in-20 years peak day,
- Be resilient to most of the supply route disruption including the Ukraine route, even in case of a peak day,
- Be resilient to a 2-week Dunkelflaute, even in Distributed Energy scenario in 2040, confirming the ability of the gas system to support the development of intermittent renewables,
- Be resilient to most Single-Largest Infrastructure disruptions.
However, a limited number of countries could still face some infrastructure limitations in some scenarios and in certain years:
- Finland in case of disruption of all imports from Russia towards the Baltic States and Finland,
- Sweden, in case of extreme climatic conditions in Global Ambition scenario in 2030 as of 2030.
The gas system proves to be resilient to cope with extreme temperatures and supply disruptions, while supporting intermittent renewables. These features of the gas system are key to achieve the European climate and energy objectives by supporting decarbonisation and energy system integration as set out by the European Green Deal.