The gas infrastructure can integrate significant volumes of intermittent renewables

The assessment confirms that the existing gas ­system can support the development of renewable gases and renewable electricity by integrating all the potential biomethane and renewable hydrogen as defined in the different scenarios, the necessary adaptations of the existing gas network are ­undertaken. The potential of the gas system ­combined with significant volumes of storage is perfectly adequate to cope with the intermittent ­renewable generation.

The gas system and its storage capacity are key to cope with the seasonality of the energy demand

On an annual basis the gas infrastructure generally offers the necessary flexibility to balance the ­seasonal inadequacy between the energy supply (rather stable over the year) and the energy ­demand (high in winter and low in summer). The ­assessment confirms that the existing gas system can store more than 30 % of the current and future winter demand. This is another key element for ­integrating very seasonal supply such as solar energy without having to curtail other forms of renewable energy generation.

In case of high demand situations under climatic stress, the role of gas storages in the gas system prove to be necessary for security of supply, since most of the gas supply delivered in peak demand situations comes from the gas storages (8,500 GWh/d to 15,500 GWh/d). In case of ­Dunkelflaute event, the share of the supply coming from the storages can go up to 40 % for 2 consecutive weeks, demonstrating the role of the gas infrastructure as a necessary infrastructure to support the development of intermittent renewables while ensuring security of energy supply for the EU.

Development of renewables bring flexibility on annual level but import ­capacities are needed to ensure security of supply in peak situations

The assessment of the gas infrastructure under Distributed Energy show that even with a significant share of indigenous renewable production, the ­storages need imports to be filled up in summer and additionally, imports are a key complement to storage withdrawals in winter.

Furthermore, the analysis of the supply mixes ­under various price configurations confirms that the gas infrastructure allows for the market to make ­arbitration between cheap and expensive supply source to minimise the cost of gas supply for the EU, and eventually, the consumers. Additional ­infrastructure also proves to be giving access to ­alternative supply sources increasing the security of gas supply in some countries.

The assessment of Low and Advanced ­infrastructure levels generally bring more flexibility to the gas ­system.

The gas infrastructure is resilient to extreme climatic events in most parts of Europe

In all scenarios, the assessment shows that the ­existing European gas system is well developed and, in most European countries, resilient to severe climatic conditions such as a 1-in-20 peak day, a 2-week cold spell or a 2-week cold spell during a dunkelflaute event.

The gas system can therefore ensure the European consumers to be supplied with the necessary amounts of gas for the next 20 years, even in case of extremely cold temperatures and limited intermittent renewable production.

FID and Advanced projects to be commissioned in the next 5 years
almost fully mitigate the remaining gaps

While the existing infrastructure is already resilient in most part of Europe, some specific areas require the commissioning of further FID or Advanced ­infrastructure to fully mitigate their exposure to ­demand curtailment in case of a 1-in-20 peak day. Only Sweden remains exposed in Global Ambition scenario in 2030.

The assessment confirms that with the ­development of intermittent renewable power generation, the gas system is generally resilient but is under an ­increasing stress. However, biomethane production is beneficial to security of supply on an annual basis and during climatic stress due to its continuous ­operation. Power-to-gas technologies are beneficial for the security of gas supply on an annual basis too.

With the significant penetration of power-to-gas in the different scenarios after 2030, especially ­Distributed Energy, the gas supply becomes more and more variable. However, during climatic stress situations, especially during Dunkelflaute events, ­hydrogen from power-to-gas can be produced at its minimum, and the electricity demand requires large amounts of gas for power generation. In such ­extreme climatic cases for the electricity and gas sectors, the gas system, including gas storages, is key to ensure the necessary energy supply for all ­sectors.

Most of Europe is protected from a possible risk of demand curtailment in case of any major supply route disruption during high demand situations.

However, for some supply route disruptions, ­infrastructure limitations keep on preventing some regions from being fully protected from a risk of ­demand curtailment. Nonetheless, projects ­submitted to the TYNDP can provide the necessary additional infrastructure to fully mitigate the ­situation.

Additionally, in some exposed areas, the ­assessment of the different scenarios show that the development of renewable gases efficiently ­contributes to security of supply and reduces the risk of demand curtailment.

Only Finland remains exposed to a certain extent in case of disruption of all imports to the Baltic States and Finland.

The resilience of the gas infrastructure improves significantly over time with the commissioning of FID and advanced projects.