Coal Before Gas/Gas Before Coal
Simulation results show that Finland is still exposed to a risk of demand curtailment in both scenarios. The risk of demand curtailment in Finland decreases, from 85 – 83 % (Coal before Gas and Gas before Coal respectively) in Existing infrastructure level to 67 – 69 %(Coal before Gas and Gas before Coal respectively) in Low infrastructure level, thanks to the commissioning of the second capacity increment of the FID Project Balticconnector, which allows more gas to flow from Estonia to Finland.
While the capacity increment in Balticconnector increases the cooperation between Estonia and Finland, Estonia shares Finland’s risk of demand curtailment up to the same extend 66 – 68 % (Coal before Gas and Gas before Coal respectively).
Additionally, there is infrastructure limitation in the area, restricting the flow from Latvia to Estonia, combined with no indigenous production in Finland and very low in Estonia coming from biomethane production.